Task You are the demand planner for CIC Namibia, the licensed distribution company for Twinsaver products. You are responsible for replenishment for the Twinsaver account and must perform the below task monthly based on the historical sales provided to you on excel. You are allowed to make up your assumption. Please make sure to state them in your report. 1. Using a forecasting method of choice, prepare three months forecast (Oct-Dec 2021) (20 marks] 2. Prepare a forecast on an aggregated level (per product group) [15 marks] 3. Prepare an order for October 2021 based on the projected sales forecast, assuming that you have a two- week lead-time, and you replenish weekly. Using the formula; Order=forecasted monthly demand-stock on Hand (SOH) - Stock on order (SOO). [10 marks) 43831 Statistic Alpha Beta Gamma MASE SMAPE MAE RMSE Value 0.002 0.001 2.22045E- 0.447586 0.079064 4.513155 5.006004 Timeline Values Forecast Lower Confidence Bound Upper Confidence Bound 24 43862 21 43891 40 43922 43922 33 43952 30 43983 37 **270 3 44013 36 ***012 44044 25 44075 35 wer 44105 36 **10 44136 67 ***130 44166) **100 60 44197 39 *** 44228 54 ce 44256 591 44287 48 ***20" **0 44317 54 ***31" 44348 60 ou 44378 68 44409 59 44440 60 60 60 60 44470 65.901811 49.69680112 82.10682078 44501 67.905406 51.70032323 84.11048874 44531 69.909001 53.70378862 86.11421341 44562 71.912596 55.7071811 88.118011 44593 73.9161911 57.71048445 90.12189771 44621 75.9197861 59.71368248 92.12588974 160 120 80 40 0 1 1 2 3 4 2 5 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 Upper Confidence BoundLower Confidence Bonne Forecast Values Sheet1 Sales data Feb-20 - 21 26 12 177 32 5 5 28 48 26 Mar-20 40 33 17 311 24 Apr-20 33 32 19 145 14 8 27 49 16 Aug-21 59 26 12 228 39 Sep-21 SOH 60 28 15 264 61 4 May-21 54 29 20 251 35 15 53 103 40 13 45 16 107 4 Product group TWINSAVER - BAKING TWINSAVER - BAKING TWINSAVER - BAKING TWINSAVER - DISPOSABLE DINING TWINSAVER - DISPOSABLE DINING TWINSAVER - DISPOSABLE DINING TWINSAVER - DISPOSABLE DINING TWINSAVER - DISPOSABLE DINING TWINSAVER - DISPOSABLE DINING TWINSAVER - DISPOSABLE DINING TWINSAVER - DOB 1 PLY TWINSAVER - DOB 1 PLY TWINSAVER - DOB 1 PLY TWINSAVER - DOB 1 PLY TWINSAVER - PAPER TOWELS TWINSAVER - PAPER TOWELS TWINSAVER - PAPER TOWELS TWINSAVER - PAPER TOWELS TWINSAVER - SERVIETTES TWINSAVER - SERVIETTES TWINSAVER - SERVIETTES TWINSAVER - TOILET ROLLS 1 PLY TWINSAVER - TOILET ROLLS 1 PLY TWINSAVER - TOILET ROLLS 1 PLY TWINSAVER - TOILET ROLLS 1 PLY TWINSAVER - TOILET ROLLS 2 PLY TWINSAVER - TOILET ROLLS 2 PLY TWINSAVER - TOILET ROLLS 2 PLY Jul-21 68 23 10 219 51 2 26 75 34 16 74 54 155 product discription TWINSAVER BAKING PAPER TWINSAVER LARGE BAK CASES 112M SO'S TWINSAVER MED BAK CASES 95MM 50'S T SAVER PAPER PLATES 235MM 50S TWINSAVER FOAM CUPS 350ML 10'S TWINSAVER PAPER PLATES 180MM OC 10 TWINSAVER PAPER PLATES 230MM 10'S TWINSAVER PAPER PLATES 230MM 20'S TWINSAVER PAPR PLTES 180MM SIDES 10 TWINSAVER POLY PLATES 230MM 10'S PNP BRAND T/PAPER 1 PLY 4S PNP BRAND T/PAPER 1 PLY 9S PNP BRAND T/PAPER 1 PLY 48S PNP BRAND T/PAPER 2 PLY 18'S T SAVER BIG WHITE 2PLY 150SHT T SAVER BIG WHITE 2PLY 150SHT 2'S TSAVER ROLLER TOWEL C/WHITE 2'S TSAVER ROLLER TOWEL C/WHITE 4'S TSAVER SERV POLY 50'S T SAVER SERV POLY 100'S TSAVER SERV POLY 200'S TSAVER WHITE 1 PLY 24'S T SAVER WHITE 1 PLY 48'S TSAVER WHITE 1 PLY 300 8'S T SAVER WHITE 1 PLY 500 8'S TSAVER 2 PLY LUX WHITE 4S T SAVER 2 PLY LUX WHITE SINGLE TSAVER 2 PLY WHITE MIN 200 SHEETS Jan-20 24 8 17 222 37 15 45 95 19 16 59 10 108 402 75 141 133 112 40 511 19 651 1348 833 747 284 357 206 40 25 105 384 113 136 194 142 58 55 37 657 1419 720 561 241 382 459 61 91 42 17 25 24 162 493 305 326 382 299 79 86 69 1714 2776 1811 1486 4111 748 985 Jun-20 37 36 24 162 54 13 34 52 28 11 5 117 80 422 169 201 328 180 25 56 29 1508 2108 1335 1148 383 32 53 120 294 217 171 348 261 47 25 18 798 1677 1297 1757 241 466 554 May-20 30 28 14 94 26 6 33 53 16 15 55 80 119 115 106 121 399 185 19 27 19 1023 1217 1111 739 234 341 545 Jul-20 36 30 22 168 41 7 19 62 19 11 60 100 129 335 190 190 310 142 53 49 25 942 1913 1592 605 298 Aug-20 25 22 18 268 35 10 16 76 26 19 79 128 184 481 279 284 315 186 80 91 32 1887 1869 1562 1274 269 630 483 Sep-20 35 321 5 212 35 13 36 68 17 16 90 125 177 584 305 117 458 171 38 40 48 1533 2117 3494 1767 453 578 645 Oct-20 36 381 45 211 39 7 7 41 64 39 231 101 107 173 560 1.50 159 360 134 55 45 31 777 1923 3095 980 354 349 441 Nov-20 67 34 18 420 59 391 58 128 45 29 115 113 223 1471 128 228 339 186 122 117 62 1072 1982 1730 1806 332 384 345 Jan-21 39 20 12 187 35 3 60 97 14 18 112 55 213 421 189 209 240 70 10 29 33 845 1757 1607 683 309 Dec-20 60 61 36 574 87 48 100 192 90 40 96 117 168 266 235 239 445 154 125 75 61 1178 1965 2400 1503 388 144 501 Feb-21 54 19 19 222 22 7 44 80 24 13 130 105 205 672 113 245 430 303 50 43 34 1083 1886 2420 1252 365 492 4331 Mar-21 59 30 26 201 38 15 43 110 38 24 113 95 208 866 328 291 590 251 43 43 46 971 2552 3876 1447 510 487 612 Apr-21 48 23 21 182 29 4 41 78 24 10 31 17 114 659 199 234 347 176 30 29 33 947 1519 1825 959 341 302 573 1595 220 288 413 204 56 41 41 990 2159 2075 666 355 221 386 Jun-21 60 26 21 273 44 4 59 77 22 9 37 18 114 2747 187 282 536 186 51 51 23 743 2057 1352 998 355 364 386 41 69 16 10 42 14 93 332 253 288 477 153 58 40 32 942 1411 1587 704 426 385 486 SOO 22 141 10 119 20 6 22 43 151 8 33 33 73 333 98 113 192 92 27 26 18 528 938 951 541 172 203 262 48 120 34 22 55 13 91 240 149 216 446 128 53 40 41 980 1345 1689 808 269 265 343 219 373 556 245 45 52 29 928 2413 2522 850 409 406 604 21 5 3 58 12 0 12 23 6 6 2 2 0 0 12 502 55 97 155 $ 44 10 6 7 163 425 430 82 97 40 85 709 998 301 Task You are the demand planner for CIC Namibia, the licensed distribution company for Twinsaver products. You are responsible for replenishment for the Twinsaver account and must perform the below task monthly based on the historical sales provided to you on excel. You are allowed to make up your assumption. Please make sure to state them in your report. 1. Using a forecasting method of choice, prepare three months forecast (Oct-Dec 2021) (20 marks] 2. Prepare a forecast on an aggregated level (per product group) [15 marks] 3. Prepare an order for October 2021 based on the projected sales forecast, assuming that you have a two- week lead-time, and you replenish weekly. Using the formula; Order=forecasted monthly demand-stock on Hand (SOH) - Stock on order (SOO). [10 marks) 43831 Statistic Alpha Beta Gamma MASE SMAPE MAE RMSE Value 0.002 0.001 2.22045E- 0.447586 0.079064 4.513155 5.006004 Timeline Values Forecast Lower Confidence Bound Upper Confidence Bound 24 43862 21 43891 40 43922 43922 33 43952 30 43983 37 **270 3 44013 36 ***012 44044 25 44075 35 wer 44105 36 **10 44136 67 ***130 44166) **100 60 44197 39 *** 44228 54 ce 44256 591 44287 48 ***20" **0 44317 54 ***31" 44348 60 ou 44378 68 44409 59 44440 60 60 60 60 44470 65.901811 49.69680112 82.10682078 44501 67.905406 51.70032323 84.11048874 44531 69.909001 53.70378862 86.11421341 44562 71.912596 55.7071811 88.118011 44593 73.9161911 57.71048445 90.12189771 44621 75.9197861 59.71368248 92.12588974 160 120 80 40 0 1 1 2 3 4 2 5 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 Upper Confidence BoundLower Confidence Bonne Forecast Values Sheet1 Sales data Feb-20 - 21 26 12 177 32 5 5 28 48 26 Mar-20 40 33 17 311 24 Apr-20 33 32 19 145 14 8 27 49 16 Aug-21 59 26 12 228 39 Sep-21 SOH 60 28 15 264 61 4 May-21 54 29 20 251 35 15 53 103 40 13 45 16 107 4 Product group TWINSAVER - BAKING TWINSAVER - BAKING TWINSAVER - BAKING TWINSAVER - DISPOSABLE DINING TWINSAVER - DISPOSABLE DINING TWINSAVER - DISPOSABLE DINING TWINSAVER - DISPOSABLE DINING TWINSAVER - DISPOSABLE DINING TWINSAVER - DISPOSABLE DINING TWINSAVER - DISPOSABLE DINING TWINSAVER - DOB 1 PLY TWINSAVER - DOB 1 PLY TWINSAVER - DOB 1 PLY TWINSAVER - DOB 1 PLY TWINSAVER - PAPER TOWELS TWINSAVER - PAPER TOWELS TWINSAVER - PAPER TOWELS TWINSAVER - PAPER TOWELS TWINSAVER - SERVIETTES TWINSAVER - SERVIETTES TWINSAVER - SERVIETTES TWINSAVER - TOILET ROLLS 1 PLY TWINSAVER - TOILET ROLLS 1 PLY TWINSAVER - TOILET ROLLS 1 PLY TWINSAVER - TOILET ROLLS 1 PLY TWINSAVER - TOILET ROLLS 2 PLY TWINSAVER - TOILET ROLLS 2 PLY TWINSAVER - TOILET ROLLS 2 PLY Jul-21 68 23 10 219 51 2 26 75 34 16 74 54 155 product discription TWINSAVER BAKING PAPER TWINSAVER LARGE BAK CASES 112M SO'S TWINSAVER MED BAK CASES 95MM 50'S T SAVER PAPER PLATES 235MM 50S TWINSAVER FOAM CUPS 350ML 10'S TWINSAVER PAPER PLATES 180MM OC 10 TWINSAVER PAPER PLATES 230MM 10'S TWINSAVER PAPER PLATES 230MM 20'S TWINSAVER PAPR PLTES 180MM SIDES 10 TWINSAVER POLY PLATES 230MM 10'S PNP BRAND T/PAPER 1 PLY 4S PNP BRAND T/PAPER 1 PLY 9S PNP BRAND T/PAPER 1 PLY 48S PNP BRAND T/PAPER 2 PLY 18'S T SAVER BIG WHITE 2PLY 150SHT T SAVER BIG WHITE 2PLY 150SHT 2'S TSAVER ROLLER TOWEL C/WHITE 2'S TSAVER ROLLER TOWEL C/WHITE 4'S TSAVER SERV POLY 50'S T SAVER SERV POLY 100'S TSAVER SERV POLY 200'S TSAVER WHITE 1 PLY 24'S T SAVER WHITE 1 PLY 48'S TSAVER WHITE 1 PLY 300 8'S T SAVER WHITE 1 PLY 500 8'S TSAVER 2 PLY LUX WHITE 4S T SAVER 2 PLY LUX WHITE SINGLE TSAVER 2 PLY WHITE MIN 200 SHEETS Jan-20 24 8 17 222 37 15 45 95 19 16 59 10 108 402 75 141 133 112 40 511 19 651 1348 833 747 284 357 206 40 25 105 384 113 136 194 142 58 55 37 657 1419 720 561 241 382 459 61 91 42 17 25 24 162 493 305 326 382 299 79 86 69 1714 2776 1811 1486 4111 748 985 Jun-20 37 36 24 162 54 13 34 52 28 11 5 117 80 422 169 201 328 180 25 56 29 1508 2108 1335 1148 383 32 53 120 294 217 171 348 261 47 25 18 798 1677 1297 1757 241 466 554 May-20 30 28 14 94 26 6 33 53 16 15 55 80 119 115 106 121 399 185 19 27 19 1023 1217 1111 739 234 341 545 Jul-20 36 30 22 168 41 7 19 62 19 11 60 100 129 335 190 190 310 142 53 49 25 942 1913 1592 605 298 Aug-20 25 22 18 268 35 10 16 76 26 19 79 128 184 481 279 284 315 186 80 91 32 1887 1869 1562 1274 269 630 483 Sep-20 35 321 5 212 35 13 36 68 17 16 90 125 177 584 305 117 458 171 38 40 48 1533 2117 3494 1767 453 578 645 Oct-20 36 381 45 211 39 7 7 41 64 39 231 101 107 173 560 1.50 159 360 134 55 45 31 777 1923 3095 980 354 349 441 Nov-20 67 34 18 420 59 391 58 128 45 29 115 113 223 1471 128 228 339 186 122 117 62 1072 1982 1730 1806 332 384 345 Jan-21 39 20 12 187 35 3 60 97 14 18 112 55 213 421 189 209 240 70 10 29 33 845 1757 1607 683 309 Dec-20 60 61 36 574 87 48 100 192 90 40 96 117 168 266 235 239 445 154 125 75 61 1178 1965 2400 1503 388 144 501 Feb-21 54 19 19 222 22 7 44 80 24 13 130 105 205 672 113 245 430 303 50 43 34 1083 1886 2420 1252 365 492 4331 Mar-21 59 30 26 201 38 15 43 110 38 24 113 95 208 866 328 291 590 251 43 43 46 971 2552 3876 1447 510 487 612 Apr-21 48 23 21 182 29 4 41 78 24 10 31 17 114 659 199 234 347 176 30 29 33 947 1519 1825 959 341 302 573 1595 220 288 413 204 56 41 41 990 2159 2075 666 355 221 386 Jun-21 60 26 21 273 44 4 59 77 22 9 37 18 114 2747 187 282 536 186 51 51 23 743 2057 1352 998 355 364 386 41 69 16 10 42 14 93 332 253 288 477 153 58 40 32 942 1411 1587 704 426 385 486 SOO 22 141 10 119 20 6 22 43 151 8 33 33 73 333 98 113 192 92 27 26 18 528 938 951 541 172 203 262 48 120 34 22 55 13 91 240 149 216 446 128 53 40 41 980 1345 1689 808 269 265 343 219 373 556 245 45 52 29 928 2413 2522 850 409 406 604 21 5 3 58 12 0 12 23 6 6 2 2 0 0 12 502 55 97 155 $ 44 10 6 7 163 425 430 82 97 40 85 709 998 301