Technique 1: The Premortem Analysis and Structured Self-Critique The goal of these techniques39 is to challengeactively and explicitlyan established mental model or analytic consensus in order to broaden the range of possible explanations or estimates that are seriously considered. This process helps reduce the risk of analytic failure by identifying and analyzing the features of a potential failure before it occurs. Task 1. Conduct a Premortem Analysis and Structured Self-Critique of the reigning view in the case study that "Karinna Moskalenko is the latest victim in a series of alleged Russian attacks on Kremlin critics