Ten months of data and the forecasts for those same periods are in the table below. Create an exponential smoothing forecast for February onwards, assuming that the January forecast was $42.$ Which value of alpha gives the best forecast using the MAPE criterion?

Month

Actual

January

$42$

February

$58$

March

$58$

April

$77$

May

$91$

June

$102$

July

$124$

August

$148$

September

$171$

October

$177$

Question $10$ options:

alpha $=0\mathrm{.}4$

alpha $=0\mathrm{.}2$

alpha $=0\mathrm{.}3$