Term Paper Assignment: 20% of final grade

This assignment relates to the following Course Learning Requirements:

[CLR 1] Calculatethe chance that some specific event will occur at some future time knowledge of thenormal probability distribution

[CLR 2] Perform Sampling Distribution and Estimation

[CLR 3] Conduct Hypothesis Testing

[CLR 4] Understand and calculate Regression and Correlation

Objective of this Assignment:To conduct a regression and correlation analysis

Instructions:

For this assignment, demonstrate your understanding of correlation by selecting two economic or business variables on which to conduct a regression analysis. Make sure your data demonstrates the independent/dependent variable relationship; make sure to distinguish between your independent and dependent variables.

Here are examples of the type of data you may wish to analyze:

1. 1)Consumer Spending in Canada (independent) vs. Canadian GDP (dependent)
2. 2)Time in Years (independent) vs. Average House Prices in Canada (dependent)

Note:Your analysis must look at data for a period of 20 years- i.e., 20 years' worth of data must beused to determine the trend equation.

Important: Please source your data. Data which is not properly documented as to source is unacceptable and paper will be graded F (textbook examples are unacceptable).

• The term paper must be typed and it will not be returned.
• The paper should be between 3 to 5 pages (1500 to 2000 words).
• The term paper must include the following:
• 1. Graph the data using a scatter diagram.
• 2. Use the method of least squares to derive a trend equation and trend values.
• 3. Use check column to verify computations (e.g., (Y-Yc)=0) and interpret the meaning of regression coefficients.
• 4. Superimpose trend equation on your scatter diagram.
• 5. Construct forecast intervals, calculate the standard error of estimate, coefficient of determination(r2),
• and correlation(r).Interpret the meaning ofr2andras it relates to your variables.
• 6. Use your regression equation to predict the value of the dependent variable in the 21styear. For

Adapted from http://www.learningoutcomeassessment.org/QR_rubric_4_2010.pdf

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example, if your dataset covers 1997-2017 use your trend equation to calculate the value of the dependent variable in 2018, compare your predictions with the actual behavior of the variable during the 21styear. If comparing two data sets, use a hypothetical value for your independent variable to calculate the dependent variable.