Question: thanks for your help! Problem 1(20 Points} Newlab has come up with a new product in its research lab. The technical success is clear, but

thanks for your help!

thanks for your help! Problem 1(20 Points} Newlab has come up with

Problem 1(20 Points} Newlab has come up with a new product in its research lab. The technical success is clear, but as with any new product the commercial success is risky. Because of this, they would sometimes testmarket a product first, and then make a decision about national marketing after the test market results had come in; at other times they would proceed directly to national marketing. On some occasions, they would abandon the product without even testmarketing it. The testmarketing would cost about $120,000. If successful [probability 0.4) there would be revenues of $40,000; if unsuccessful the revenues would only be $10,000. Should the test market be successful, a followup national campaign at a cost of $500,000 would have a 70% chance of success with a revenue of $1,800,000, otherwise it would be a failure with a revenue of $150,000. Should the test market be unsuccessful, a followup national campaign would have only a 0.2 chance of success [with the same cost, and the same revenues for success and failure). A national campaign not preceded by a test campaign would have a 45% chance of success. It would cost 5500111], and would produce a revenue of $1,900,000 if successful, but only $175,000 otherwise. {a} Draw the decision tree that starts with the alternatives that Newlab has and that include the events that would occur (i.e., successful or unsuccessful test market, success or failure in the campaign). Use payoff nodes where appropriate and probabilities. {10 points). (b) State the recommendation for Newlab that would maximize their profit. (c) If the $600,000 gure in the last paragraph in bold were changed to $800,000, what would be the revised recommendation? (5 points)

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