The ABC Floral Shop is considering fitting various forecasting models on the first seven days of demand and using the second seven days as a hold$-$out sample for comparing the prediction accuracy of the models. They have decided to use $\backslash$alpha $=0\mathrm{.}25,$ but aren$$t sure what starting value of forecast, F$1,$ to use. b$.$ Compare the best model from part a to a three$-$period moving average model on the second set of data.