The attached Excel spreadsheet contains time-series data capturing the weekly average of crude oil imports of a small country in thousands of barrels per day. Your task is to use this historical data to project the import into week 53 and beyond. a) Create a time-series plot showing the week-to-week variation in oil imports. Comment on the patterns you observe in the plot. (2 marks) b) Use the following forecasting techniques to forecast the demand for week 53. (10 marks) a. 1-period moving average (nave forecast) b. 3-period moving average c. 3-period weighted moving average with 3-point weights = 0.3, 0.3, 0.4 (with 0.4 is given to the most recent period) d. Trend projection with linear regression c) Calculate MAD, MSE, and MAPE for each of the forecasting techniques used in part b. Begin your error calculation starting from week 5. Which model has the best performance on the historical data? (13 marks) d) Use the result of your Moving Average, Weighted Moving Average and Trend Projection methods from part (b) to develop a combination forecast. Weigh these three methods equally to develop this combination forecast. The logic would be to improve the overall forecast by combining the benefits of each technique. Calculate MAD, MSE and MAPE for this model and compare with the performance of individual models. Begin your error calculation from week 1. (5 marks)