The cadet laundry service at USAFA is outsourced to a company based near Woodmen & Powers in
Question:
The cadet laundry service at USAFA is outsourced to a company based near Woodmen & Powers in Colorado Springs. The company makes three trips each week between the laundry facility and USAFA, but the road conditions can have a fairly significant impact on travel time. The driver will take one of three routes to get to USAFA each day: via Woodmen Rd & Academy Blvd,InterquestPkwy & I-25 or Powers Blvd & North Gate Blvd. If road conditions are good, North Gate tends to be the fastest route; if they are bad, one of the other routes is usually better. Over the past 6 months the company has collected data on the average time (in minutes) it takes using each route and has summarized the findings as follows:
Route | Road Conditions | Travel Time |
Woodmen & Academy | Clear | 40 |
Wet | 45 | |
Snowy | 50 | |
Icy | 60 | |
Interquest& I-25 | Clear | 40 |
Wet | 45 | |
Snowy | 45 | |
Icy | 75 | |
Powers & North Gate | Clear | 35 |
Wet | 55 | |
Snowy | 60 | |
Icy | 70 |
Over the course of the year, road conditions have historically been clear 50% of the time, wet 10% of the time, snow-packed 25% of the time, and icy 15% of the time.
The National Weather Service(NWS)is calling for an unusually dry summerand an unusually wetwinter for2018-2019,and so the company has asked you to modify the probabilities to determine the point at which you should change from one route to another.After soliciting additional information from both the laundry company and the NWS,you believe that the best course of analysis would be to hold the probability of clear and wetconditions constant at50% and10%respectively,and vary the snowy andicy conditionsacross the remaining range(in1%increments).
When performing sensitivity analysis on this problem, what is the maximum probabilitythat icy conditionscan take on? Enter your answer as an integer value; e.g. enter 50% simply as 50.
OM4 operations management
ISBN: 978-1133372424
4th edition
Authors: David Alan Collier, James R. Evans