Question: The consensus forecasts along with recent historical data are presented below. All numbers are annual figures. For example, the unemployment rate in any year is

The consensus forecasts along with recent historical data are presented below. All numbers are annual figures. For example, the unemployment rate in any year is the average of the monthly unemployment rates across all 12 months of that year.

2020

Actual

2021

Actual

2022

Forecast

2023

Forecast

2024

Forecast

Real GDP Change

-3.4%

5.7%

2.5%

2.3%

2.0%

Unemployment Rate

8.1%

5.4%

3.7%

3.6%

3.8%

Consumer Inflation

1.2%

6.7%

6.1%

2.9%

2.3%

A. Describe what you consider to be the major take-aways from the consensus forecasts in comparison to actual data from 2020 and 2021.(summarize the forecasters' outlook for the economy over the next three years.) (10 points)

B. Pick any one of these three variables. Do you think the actual 2024 value of your chosen variable will be higher or lower than the consensus forecast? Justify your answer. (8 points)

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