Question: The demand pattern for a specific toothpaste follows a constant demand pattern, based on the past sales data. The manufacturing company uses simple exponential smoothing
The demand pattern for a specific toothpaste follows a constant demand pattern, based on the past sales data. The manufacturing company uses simple exponential smoothing method to make a forecast for the next month and wants to find the best value of the smoothing constant ( ), among three different values, to minimize their forecast error. The company reports that the initial estimate for the first month was 1,250 units. But we do not know how the company found this forecasted value and which method was employed by the company. (Before solving the question, select different values from the common interval [0.1;0.9], fill in the following table and copy it into your answer sheet. Otherwise, your solution cannot be evaluated.) Note: In your computations, do NOT round any numbers up or down. Please always use 2-scientific digits after the decimal for all non-integer values. a) Assume that 1st month is over. Actual demand for 1s month is realized as dt units. Find three different forecasts for the 2ad month, based on three different a values. Show all your work. (Select an integer value for dj from the interval [1,000;1,500] and copy the selected value into your answer sheet. Otherwise, your solution cannot be evaluated.) b) Assume that 2nd month is over. Actual demand for 2ed month is realized as dz units. Find three different forecasts for the 3re month, based on three different values, by using the correct forecasts obtained in part a). Show all your work. (Select an integer value for dz from the interval [1,000;1,500] and copy the selected value into your answer sheet. Otherwise, your solution cannot be evaluated.) c) Assume that 3rl month is over. Actual demand for 3rd month is realized as d3 units. Find three different forecasts for the 3rd month, based on three different values, by using the correct forecasts obtained in part a). Show all your work. (Select an integer value for d from the interval [1,000:1,500] and copy the selected value into your answer sheet. Otherwise, your solution cannot be evaluated.) d) Compute the forecast errors for 2ed and 33d months, based on three different values and complete the following table. Show all your work. e) Compute the MAD for each value based on forecast errors for 2nit and 3rd months, and complete the following table. Determine the best value, among three alternative a values. Show all your work. The demand pattern for a specific toothpaste follows a constant demand pattern, based on the past sales data. The manufacturing company uses simple exponential smoothing method to make a forecast for the next month and wants to find the best value of the smoothing constant ( ), among three different values, to minimize their forecast error. The company reports that the initial estimate for the first month was 1,250 units. But we do not know how the company found this forecasted value and which method was employed by the company. (Before solving the question, select different values from the common interval [0.1;0.9], fill in the following table and copy it into your answer sheet. Otherwise, your solution cannot be evaluated.) Note: In your computations, do NOT round any numbers up or down. Please always use 2-scientific digits after the decimal for all non-integer values. a) Assume that 1st month is over. Actual demand for 1s month is realized as dt units. Find three different forecasts for the 2ad month, based on three different a values. Show all your work. (Select an integer value for dj from the interval [1,000;1,500] and copy the selected value into your answer sheet. Otherwise, your solution cannot be evaluated.) b) Assume that 2nd month is over. Actual demand for 2ed month is realized as dz units. Find three different forecasts for the 3re month, based on three different values, by using the correct forecasts obtained in part a). Show all your work. (Select an integer value for dz from the interval [1,000;1,500] and copy the selected value into your answer sheet. Otherwise, your solution cannot be evaluated.) c) Assume that 3rl month is over. Actual demand for 3rd month is realized as d3 units. Find three different forecasts for the 3rd month, based on three different values, by using the correct forecasts obtained in part a). Show all your work. (Select an integer value for d from the interval [1,000:1,500] and copy the selected value into your answer sheet. Otherwise, your solution cannot be evaluated.) d) Compute the forecast errors for 2ed and 33d months, based on three different values and complete the following table. Show all your work. e) Compute the MAD for each value based on forecast errors for 2nit and 3rd months, and complete the following table. Determine the best value, among three alternative a values. Show all your work
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