• The final project in the course is intended for you to apply course concepts to a data set that is of interest to you. The Data Analysis Proposal was intended to prepare you for this assignment and should serve as a foundation for this analysis. The assignment will feature two phases. The first is to complete various analyses, including Developing three visualizations (graphs, scatter plots, etc.) that provide an illustration of your data based on the questions motiving your analysis. Detrend or transform the data, as necessary. Present autocorrelation and cross-correlations. Include representative scatterplots and correlograms. Provide interpretation of the output. Fit three models, develop appropriate forecasts, and provide interpretation of your output. You must develop each of the following: Moving Average with the exponential smoothing method of your choice. Provide a rationale for the smoothing method that you use. A regression model with forecasts. ARIMA model with forecasts. After you complete each of the analyses above, you are ready to write your report, which should include the following: An introduction to the topic and its relevance.
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• A description of the data you used and its source. The scientific questions (hypotheses) you are investigating. This question(s) will serve as the foundation for your forecasting. Insert the visualizations you developed above. Clearly describe each and their significance. Present your autocorrelation and cross-correlations. Include any visualizations you created as well (e.g., scatterplots and correlograms). Provide an interpretation of the output.
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• Describe the three models you developed, anything significant from their output, and the accompanying forecasts. Your final model outputs should be inserted at the end of your paper as an Appendix. These must be provided to show evidence that they were developed appropriately. Screenshots are sufficient. Present final conclusions.
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• Determine which model is preferred and provide a detailed rationale for your choice. Guidelines Format your report as if you were submitting it to be reviewed by a decision-maker at your workplace. When inserting images into the body of your text, be sure that text is wrapped appropriately and the report maintains a consistent flow throughout. You can organize your paper using section headings, if preferred, to create a more organized final product. Your report should be written in paragraph format, using correct spelling, punctuation, and grammar. There is no minimum or maximum page limit for this assignment.
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