The first case study is related to Demand Forecasting.

Case Study 1 (Toffee Inc.: Demand Planning for Chocolate Bars) Please analyze and answer the following questions. Please show your working calculations in excel to support your answers.

1) What kind of sales demand is Toffee Inc. looking at? Is there any seasonality pattern in demand? Can you show me how the seasonality pattern is calculated in demand forecasting in excel?

TOFFEE INC.: DEMAND PLANNING FOR CHOCOLATE BARS Jitendra Sharma wrote this case solely to provide material for class discussion. The author does not intend to illustrate either effective or ineffective handling of a managerial situation. The author may have disguised certain names and other identifying information to protect confidentiality. This publication may not be transmitted, photocopied, digitized or otherwise reproduced in any form or by any means without the permission of the copyright holder. Reproduction of this material is not covered under authorization by any reproduction rights organization. To order copies or request permission to reproduce materials, contact Ivey Publishing, Ivey Business School, Western University, London, Ontario, Canada, N6G ON1; (t) 519.661.3208; (e) cases@ivey.ca; www.iveycases.com. Copyright (C) 2015, Richard Ivey School of Business Foundation Version: 2022-05-16 In March 2011, Vishal Ramani, the inventory manager of sales and distribution for Toffee Inc., a confectionery company, had just concluded a meeting with all relevant personnel. The meeting had not been entirely positive. The words of the production manager still echoed in his ears: "If the ingredient inventory that was purchased and managed by the firm is not re-examined and re-worked to the firm's advantage then [soon] the final products based on these ingredients will cease to yield the kind of profits that the firm expects." Ramani's task was to prepare a comprehensive forecasting and inventory management plan with a view to minimize the cost of managing the supply chain by judicious use of resources, better forecasting, and improvement in the ingredient inventory purchasing and management systems. Most importantly, he had to decide how much and when to order the ingredients involved in one of the company's most popular products, the "Seven Star" chocolate bar