Question: The following is a partial printout from a Regression routine run on quarterly seasonal data with a trend in order to obtain a regression forecasting
The following is a partial printout from a Regression routine run on quarterly seasonal data with a trend in order to obtain a regression forecasting model. There were 20 consecutive quarters in the original time series. Time period 1 corresponds to a 1st quarter value. The trend variable is t, and the 3 dummy variables representing Quarters 1, 2 and 3 are Qtr1, Qtr2, and Qtr3 resp. Use the printout below to forecast the value of the time series for time period 23. Round your forecast to 1 decimal place.
| SUMMARY OUTPUT |
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| Regression Statistics |
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| Multiple R | 0.988 |
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| R Square | 0.976 |
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| Adjusted R Square | 0.968 |
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| Standard Error | 0.217 |
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| Observations | 20 |
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| ANOVA |
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| df | SS | MS | F | Significance F |
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| Regression | 4 | 21.248 | 5.312 | 156.235 | 0.000 |
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| Residual | 15 | 0.516 | 0.034 |
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| Total | 19 | 21.282 |
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| Variables | Coefficients | Standard Error | t Stat | P-value | Lower 95% | Upper 95% |
| Intercept | 5.7 | 0.162 | 37.347 | 0.000 | 5.711 | 6.426 |
| t | 0.6 | 0.012 | 12.023 | 0.000 | 0.119 | 0.172 |
| Qtr1 | -0.6 | 0.157 | -8.657 | 0.000 | -1.710 | -1.017 |
| Qtr2 | -2.9 | 0.155 | -13.112 | 0.000 | -2.375 | -1.692 |
| Qtr3 | 0.3 | 0.154 | -1.981 | 0.073 | -0.643 | 0.034 |
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