THE FOLLOWING TABLE IS FOR PROBLEMS 1 TO 6.

Month Actual Sales Forecast

January 23 21

February 26 25

March 28 30

April 32 33

May 36 34

June 44 45

1. What is the 4-month moving average forecast for July?

2. Using a weighted 4-month moving average, with a weight of 0.4 for the most recent value and weights of 0.3, 0.2 and 0.1 for successively older sales data, obtain the forecast for July.

3. Use single exponential smoothing with a smoothing constant of .65 to forecast sales for July.

4. Calculate the MAD for the forecasts in the Table above.

5. Calculate the MSE for the forecasts in the Table above.

6. Calculate the MAPE for the forecasts in the Table above.

7. House Depot Inc. has accumulated data relating the number of furnaces sold to the number of times their advertisement appeared on television the previous week. Using the data, develop a simple linear regression model to predict sales for a week following the one during which they advertised four times on television.

Number of Units

TV Adverts (x) Sold (y)

2 10

5 24

3 15

5 23

6 32