Question: The material in Topic 6.1 of the module discussed the five steps of Monte Carlo simulation . In this work, the student will solve a
The material in Topic 6.1 of the module discussed the five steps of Monte Carlo simulation. In this work, the student will solve a hypothetical problem applying the aforementioned technique.
Instructions:
- Using the five steps of Monte Carlo simulation, you are going to model a hypothetical situation for a Mechanic's Shop. Use the data in the following table for the number of maintenance services. You should assume that the data comes from the business.
- You are going to run a simulation at 10, 30, and 40. Don't forget to include the simulated demand results for each.
- In the same way, it must include the results of the expected demand.
| Daily demand | Frequency | Probability | Cumulative Probability | Random Number Intervals |
| 0 | 15 | |||
| 1 | 29 | |||
| 2 | 31 | |||
| 3 | 43 | |||
| 4 | 57 | |||
| 5 | 33 | |||
| 6 | 40 |
- Using your creativity, you are going to give a name and location to the company.
- Explain each specific step using the Table Modeling a Real Scenario: Monte Carlo Simulation.
| Modeling in a Real Scenario: Monte Carlo Simulation (Name of the company) | |
| Step | Description |
| Definition of the problem. | |
| Step 1. Establish the probability distributions for the important input variables. | |
| Step 2. Make a cumulative probability distribution for each variable from the previous step. | |
| Step 3. Establish a range of random numbers for each variable. | |
| Step 4. Generate random numbers. | |
| Step 5. Simulate a series of tests. | |
| Examine and interpret the results. |
- For the estimation of these criteria, you will use the QM for Windows tool or Excel QM.
It must include at least 2 academic sources, formats and cited in accordance with current APA regulations.
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