The Municipal Government has asked you to forecast the sales tax revenue it will collect in 2017, 2018 and 2019. Data on revenue in recent years is presented below.

Year	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	TOTAL
2012	695	788	809	1,302	$3,594
2013	896	941	1,018	1,677	$4,532
2014	1,037	929	1,353	2,090	$5,409
2015	1,067	1,081	1,574	2,143	$5,865
2016	1,147	1,161	1,683	2,372	$6,362

*In thousands

You see an upward trend in the data, and you decide to try the moving average method or regression models to develop your forecast.

a. Estimate annual sales tax revenue for 2017, 2018 and 2019 using a moving average “3-day” (MA3) model. Please clearly show the process you use to come up with your estimates. (5 points)

b. Estimate annual sales tax revenue for 2017, 2018 and 2019 using a moving average “4-day” (MA4) model. Please clearly show the process you use to come up with your estimates. (5 points)

c. Using one of the methods, forecast the quarterly sales tax revenue for 2017. Clearly show the process you use to come up with your estimates. (Hint: consider average or moving average by quarter, or ratio / percent.)

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