The second order polynomial time series regression model contains a variable W and a regression equation of y $=400+3$W $+2$W$2$ to forecast future values. If W represents a time period, what are the forecast and forecast error for time period $2$ if the actual value for time period $2$ is $500?$ Select the best answer.

forecast value $=465$; forecast error is $35$

forecast value $=414$; forecast error is $86$

forecast value $=406$; forecast error is $194$

forecast value $=500$; forecast error is $-86$