Question: The US equity markets have recently experienced a modest correction, and analysts are looking forward to assessing the potential for further declines. Suppose you read

The US equity markets have recently experienced a modest correction, and analysts are looking forward to assessing the potential for further declines. Suppose you read an interview in Barron's that cites comments provided by an experienced market analyst, and she argues that the probability of the 10% or larger correction in the S&P 500 during the second half of 2022 is 0.20 (i.e., 20%). Is the probability value cited in the article an empirical probability, a subjective probability, or an a priori probability?

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