Question: There is a probability that an unknown critical error could manifest itself during the first five years of field operations, costing us retrofit costs and

There is a probability that an unknown critical

There is a probability that an unknown critical error could manifest itself during the first five years of field operations, costing us retrofit costs and warranty penalties of $20M. Mitigation PLAN: Spend $500K to perform System Stress Testing, broadening test coverage to cover all scenarios and reducing the risk of delivering a system with a hidden critical error. Probability of no CE is 0.6 Probability there is one = 0.4 Probability of testing and don't find CE =0.1 Probability of find and fix CE = 0.3 As the program manager, would you agree to this plan? Why? Show your work

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