This assignment may be done individually or in a group of two students. Each student or group will submit one Excel file $($using this assignment template$)$ on the link provided. If you are working with someone, please provide only one submission. Include your name$($s$)$ in the file name.

The tabs in this file are for presenting you final dataset, models, and discussion. These are the only tabs that I will look at for grading. You may use additional tabs but show your final models and discussion on these tabs$.$

$1.$ Find a quarterly time series dataset consisting of four years of data. Please do not use any data newer than $2019.$ This will avoid having to deal with the effect of the pandemic in your analysis. $($Hint: Company sales or revenues have been commonly used by prior students$).$

$2.$ On the "DATA" tab, show your original data set and create a line plot of the data. Discuss the characteristics of the data, $($e$.$g$.,$ any trends, seasonality, etc.$)$ and suggest the types of models that would perform best in developing quarterly forecasts for the year beyond your data. Put this discussion in a box. Highlight the box in yellow.

$3.$ On the "MOVING AVERAGE" tab, take your data and create a moving average forecast. Using this model, develop a forecast for the four quarters beyond your data. Calculate MAD and Bias using the third and fourth years of your data $(8$ quarterly periods$).$ Briefly discussion the selection of the number of periods selected for your model and what the MAD and Bias indicate about your model. Put this discussion in a box. Highlight the box in yellow.

$4.$ On the "TREND MODEL" tab, take your data and create a trend adjusted model. Using this model develop a forecast for the four quarters beyond your data. Calculate MAD and Bias using the third and fourth years of your data $(8$ quarterly periods$).$ Briefly discussion the selection of start$-$up values for your model and what the MAD and Bias indicate about your model. Put this discussion in a box. Highlight the box in yellow.

$5.$ On the "TREND AND SEASONAL" tab, take your data and create a model that adjusts for both a possible trend and seasonal component in your data. Using this model develop a forecast for the four quarters beyond your data. Calculate MAD and Bias using the third and fourth years of your data $(8$ quarterly periods$).$ Briefly discussion the selection of start$-$up values for your model and what the MAD and Bias indicate about your model. Put this discussion in a box. Highlight the box in yellow.

$6.$ On the "SUMMARY" tab, create a summary table of the MAD and Bias of each of your models. Briefly describe which models performs best and why. Finally, indicate which model you would choose and why. Put this discussion in a box. Highlight the box in yellow.