This data set represents timber production $($in tons$)$ for a small northwest company. Produce a one to two page $($maximum$)$ report that contains an introduction, analysis, and conclusions, using the time$-$series methods from chapter $9.$ Submit your $.$docx file to D$2$L by Sunday, April $21,2024,5$:$00$ p$.$m$.$ Be sure to submit back$-$up copies of your $.$docx and $.$xlsx to your K: drive folder as well.

Introduction $(10$ points$)$:

a$.$ produce a time series graph of the data and discuss any patterns you observe. Label your graph appropriately. $(5$ points$)$

b$.$ In order to forecast for $2024,$ a model must be developed. Produce an appropriate model for this data based on patterns observed. Build a table with the models attempted $($show at least three models$).$ In your table report the major results and the error metric used to compare models $($this will justify your choice of a model, see d below$)$ State the model you will use to forecast for $2024.$ Label this as Equation $(1).(10$ points$)$

c$.$ Forecast for $2024$ using your model $($be sure to report the forecasts in a table in your report$)$ and produce a graph with the data and your forecast for $2024.$ Discuss R$^2,$ the p$-$values, and other statistics that can illustrate the appropriateness of your model. $(10$ points$)$

d$.$ What is the MAE for your model? Does this seem reasonable? Does it indicate a good or bad model? Use appropriate units in your answer. $(5$ points$)$

Conclusion$/$Recommendations $(10$ points$)$

Year $20192020202120222023$

Quarter $155\mathrm{.}86\mathrm{.}57\mathrm{.}511$

Quarter $212\mathrm{.}51315\mathrm{.}819\mathrm{.}523$

Quarter $310\mathrm{.}81113\mathrm{.}41519\mathrm{.}3$

Quarter $411\mathrm{.}812\mathrm{.}614\mathrm{.}517\mathrm{.}323$