Question: This is a marketing forecasting simulation on gas prices for 24 months. I tried but still don't get it. Forecasting Simulation The Mission You have



Forecasting Simulation The Mission You have taken up the role of an Operations Consultant and just signed a 2 year contract with a new client, Petroplex, which is a gas station in your area. As part of your role, you will provide monthly forecasts for PetroPlex to match customer demand. PetroPlex sells 3 types of gas - Regular, Midgrade and Premium. You will need to provide accurate forecasts of the demand for the three types of gasoline at the beginning of each month. Your performance will be based on the collective Mean Average Percentage Error (MAPE) of the three types of gas. The final MAPE value should be less than 25%. The simulation will take approximately 20-45 minutes to complete and can be paused at any time. -- 23 Months Remaining MAKE DECISION CLOSE Jan 1 FROM: Vivienne Batel/Owner SUBJECT: Market Research Jan 1 Jan 1 Jan 1 Gas sales across type of gasoline: 80% of gas sales tend to be regular, 15% tend to be midgrade, and 5% tend to be premium Effect of price on demand: Every $0.10 Increase in the price per gallon of gas tends to decrease gallons of gas sold by 1% to 3% Monthly Seasonal Factors: Chart representing the monthly seasonality factor for gasoline (a factor of 1.00 represents the baseline monthly demand) Jan 1 Jan 1 Jan 1 Table : Seasonal factors for monthly demand Jan 1 JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC 07 1.00 1.05 1.00 1.15 1.07 102 0.94 0.25 Month Rango FORECASTING SIMULATION February 2021 - 23 Months Remaining 9 MAKE DECISION MAKE A FORECAST CLOSE CURRENT DECISION Actual Demand in previous months February 2021 Demand PAST DECISION Midgade Premium January 2021 Made Forecast Month Rao Forecast for February 2021 Regular 7700 1 Gallons Midgrade 1000 + Gallons Premium 400 Gallo Chances left 2 SUBMIT ASK AN EXPERT Prica prediction Possible increase in February 2021 FOREO HING February 2021 - 23 Months Remaining Regular Midgrade Premium Forecasted demand Actual demand 10K Demand 5k 0 M Feb Dec Nov Jan Month Range 5096 APE. Range 2596 0% Jan Feb Mar NON Dec Month Range so Tracking Signal 04 De Month Range Forecasting Simulation The Mission You have taken up the role of an Operations Consultant and just signed a 2 year contract with a new client, Petroplex, which is a gas station in your area. As part of your role, you will provide monthly forecasts for PetroPlex to match customer demand. PetroPlex sells 3 types of gas - Regular, Midgrade and Premium. You will need to provide accurate forecasts of the demand for the three types of gasoline at the beginning of each month. Your performance will be based on the collective Mean Average Percentage Error (MAPE) of the three types of gas. The final MAPE value should be less than 25%. The simulation will take approximately 20-45 minutes to complete and can be paused at any time. -- 23 Months Remaining MAKE DECISION CLOSE Jan 1 FROM: Vivienne Batel/Owner SUBJECT: Market Research Jan 1 Jan 1 Jan 1 Gas sales across type of gasoline: 80% of gas sales tend to be regular, 15% tend to be midgrade, and 5% tend to be premium Effect of price on demand: Every $0.10 Increase in the price per gallon of gas tends to decrease gallons of gas sold by 1% to 3% Monthly Seasonal Factors: Chart representing the monthly seasonality factor for gasoline (a factor of 1.00 represents the baseline monthly demand) Jan 1 Jan 1 Jan 1 Table : Seasonal factors for monthly demand Jan 1 JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC 07 1.00 1.05 1.00 1.15 1.07 102 0.94 0.25 Month Rango FORECASTING SIMULATION February 2021 - 23 Months Remaining 9 MAKE DECISION MAKE A FORECAST CLOSE CURRENT DECISION Actual Demand in previous months February 2021 Demand PAST DECISION Midgade Premium January 2021 Made Forecast Month Rao Forecast for February 2021 Regular 7700 1 Gallons Midgrade 1000 + Gallons Premium 400 Gallo Chances left 2 SUBMIT ASK AN EXPERT Prica prediction Possible increase in February 2021 FOREO HING February 2021 - 23 Months Remaining Regular Midgrade Premium Forecasted demand Actual demand 10K Demand 5k 0 M Feb Dec Nov Jan Month Range 5096 APE. Range 2596 0% Jan Feb Mar NON Dec Month Range so Tracking Signal 04 De Month Range
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