Question: This is a statistics & probability question I ' m needing assistance with, preferably step by step information using Excel. A particular company is considering
This is a statistics & probability question Im needing assistance with, preferably step by step information using Excel.
A particular company is considering bidding on a contract for a new office building complex. The figure below shows the decision tree prepared by one of the company's analysts. At node the company must decide whether to bid on the contract. The cost of preparing the bid is $ The upper branch from node shows that the company has a probability of winning the contract if it submits a bid. If the company wins the bid, it will have to pay $ million to become a partner in the project. Node shows that the company will then consider doing a market research study to forecast demand for the office units prior to beginning construction. The cost of this study is $ Node is a chance node showing the possible outcomes of the market research study. Nodes and are similar in that they are the decision nodes for the company to either build the office complex or sell the rights in the project to another developer. The decision to build the complex will result in an income of $ million if demand is high and $ million if demand is moderate. If the company chooses to sell its rights in the project to another developer, income from the sale is estimated to be $ million. The probabilities shown at nodes and are based on the projected outcomes of the market research study.
a
Verify the company's profit projections shown at the ending branches of the decision tree by calculating the payoffs of $ and $ for first two outcomes, the outcomes extending from chance node
b
What is the expected profit in $ for this project?
c
What would the cost in $ of the market research study have to be before the company would change its decision about conducting the study?
d
Develop a risk profile for the company. Submit a file with a maximum size of MB
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