This is a Supply Chain Management and Operation course.

Assignment Part1 Submission Each group has to submit an Excel file with all calculations as well as a Word file with the written answers to the questions. One submission is required per group through the submission link on Blackboard, folder "Project". Due date is 4th March at 11.59PM. Late submissions will not be accepted. Every group has to submit a cover sheet containing information on the part of the assignment done by each student. All students have to participate evenly in the work. The cover sheet has to be (electronically) approved and signed by all members of the group. Rules 1. The work has to be done by the members of the group only and no collaboration is allowed with other groups. 2- Any doubtful similarity between the works of two or more groups in the Excel or Word files will lead the members of these groups to have 0 and further decisions will be made according to the cheating case. 3. The professor may request a meeting with any student to orally present the submitted work in details. If the student does not come to the meeting or if he is not able to explain the work in detail, he will have 0 and further decisions may be made according to the case. 4- Collaboration is needed within each group, however any eventual problem within the group that prevents the work from progressing has to be reported as soon as possible Forecasting assignment A clothing company wants to forecast the demand for its main product, based on the data below. NON Week Sales 1 124 2 123 120 134 140 139 7 145 8 144 9 165 10 163 11 172 12 171 13 169 14 176 15 187 16 180 17 183 18 19 193 20 190 21 203 22 208 23 204 24 218 188 Management would like you to experiment with different forecasting methods, using Excel, to determine which forecasting method to be implemented. 1. Using Excel, create a plot of the historical demand data. According to the graph, which method (from those seen in class) do you recommend? Justify your answer. 2. Simple moving average using Excel: 2.1 Calculate demand forecast for weeks 3-24 using 2 week simple moving average. 2.2 Calculate demand forecast for weeks 11-24 using 10 week simple moving average. Plot the two simple moving average forecasts together with the actual demand. Comment on the obtained graph. Using the forecasting error measures seen in class, evaluate the forecasting error of each method. Accordingly which method is better? 2.3 2.4 3. Weighted moving average using Excel: 3.1 Calculate demand forecast for weeks 5-24 using 4 week weighted moving average with weights 0.25, 0.25, 0.25, 0.25 3.2 Calculate demand forecast for weeks 5-24 using 4 week weighted moving average with weights 0.6, 0.3, 0.05, 0.05 3.3 Plot the two weighted moving average forecasts together with the actual demand. Comment on the obtained graph. 3.4 Using the forecasting error measures seen in class, evaluate the forecasting error of each method. Accordingly which method is better? 4. Linear regression using Excel 4.1 Using data analysis toolpack, carry out linear regression for the demand data. Provide a detailed analysis of the regression output in the way we did in class. 4.2 Write the regression line equation. 4.3 Using the regression line equation, calculate in Excel demand forecast for weeks 1-24. 4.4 Plot linear regression forecast together with the actual demand and the forecasts selected in questions 2 and 3. Comment on the obtained graph. 4.5 Using the forecasting error measures seen in class, evaluate the forecasting error of linear regression 4.6 Which forecasting method among those studied in questions 2, 3 and 4 is the best? Why