• This week you will be doing the case study entitled, "Forecasting Attendance" (see below). All cases and problems must use Excel QM. ALL CALCULATIONS MUST BE SHOWN. Spreadsheets must accompany a formal analysis in APA format (Word) and submitted through Assignment for credit. Assignments not in APA format and/or do not meet the minimum word count of 300-500 will not receive credit. Please read the rubric before starting your assignment. Do not recopy the case or any significant portion of the case in your document. Rubric for a case study is below (after the case.) Case - Forecasting Attendance

  Southwestern University (SWU), a large state college in Stephenville, Texas, 30 miles southwest of the Dallas/Fort Worth metroplex, enrolls close to 20,000 students. In a typical towngown relationship, the school is a dominant force in the small city, with more students during fall and spring than permanent residents.

  A longtime football powerhouse, SWU is a member of the Big Eleven conference and is usually in the top 20 in college football rankings. To bolster its chances of reaching the elusive and long-desired number-one ranking, in 2012 SWU hired the legendary Bo Pitterno as its head coach. Although the number-one ranking remained out of reach, attendance at the five Saturday home games each year increased. Prior to Pitternos arrival,attendance generally averaged 25,000 to 29,000 per game. Season ticket sales bumped up by 10,000 just with the announcement of the new coachs arrival. Stephenville and SWU were ready to move to the big time! The immediate issue facing SWU, however, was not NCAA ranking. It was capacity. The existing SWU stadium, built in 1953, has seating for 54,000 fans. The following table indicates attendance at each game for the past six years. One of Pitternos demands upon joining SWU had been a stadium expansion, or possibly even a new stadium. With attendance increasing, SWU administrators began to face the issuehead-on. Pitterno had wanted dormitories solely for his athletes in the stadium as an additional feature of any expansion. SWUs president, Dr. Marty Starr, decided it was time for his vice president of development to forecast when the existing stadium would max out. He also sought a revenue projection,assuming an average ticket price of $20 in 2018 and a 6.5% increase each year in future prices.

  Discussion Questions

  1. Develop a forecasting model, justify and compare its selection over other techniques (compare at least two different models (naive model cannot be used) including calculations in QM for both), and project attendance through 2019. Which is more accurate and why?

  2. What revenues are to be expected in 2018 and 2019?

  3. Discuss the schools options.

  Southwestern University Football Game Attendance, 2012-2017

  	2012		2013		2014
  Game	Attendees	Opponent	Attendees	Opponent	Attendees	Opponent
  1	34,500	Baylor	36,500	Oklahoma	36,100	TCU
  2*	39,900	Texas	40,100	Nebraska	45,600	Texas Tech
  3	38,000	LSU	39,500	UCLA	43,500	Alaska
  4**	26,500	Arkansas	25,300	Nevada	27,000	Arizona
  5	34,500	USC	36,500	Ohio	39,500	Rice

  	2015		2016		2017
  Game	Attendees	Opponent	Attendees	Opponent	Attendees	Opponent
  1	41,500	Arkansas	43,000	Indiana	47,000	TCU
  2*	46,900	Missouri	49,300	North Texas	50,500	Texas Tech
  3	43,500	Missouri	44,500	Texas A&M	46,000	Alaska
  4**	30,500	Miami	34,000	Southern	36,500	Arizona
  5	41,000	Duke	48,000	Oklahoma	50,000	Rice

  *Homecoming games

  **During the fourth week of each season, Stephenville hosted a hugely popular southwestern crafts festival. This event brought tens of thousands of tourists to the town, especially on weekends, and had an obvious negative impact on game attendance.