Topic 1: Forecasting and Decision Making in Module 3 discussed the importance of using forecasting methods as part of decision making under uncertainty. In this work the student will create a real modeling scenario for the sales of a supermarket. You will apply the use of the steps to follow in decision making and the use of forecasting methods.

Instructions:

1. Using the six steps to follow in decision making, model a problem that requires the use of decision making related to the application of the use of a sales forecast for a supermarket.
2. Make the forecast with the data in the Table below. The data is in thousands of dollars. The student will assume that this data comes from the company.

Board. Supermarket Sales Data

Months	2018	2019	2020	2021
January	2165	2046.6	2075.3	2032.3
February	2213.5	2109.2	2097.7	2107.4
March	2103.1	1956.7	2021	2012.8
April	2133.6	2016.7	2082.8	2029.1
May	1966	1849.5	1906.9	1826
June	1937.5	1818.3	1950.3	1795
July	1856.8	1791.9	1817.8	1762.3
August	1758.4	1629	1738.3	1629.4
September	1864.3	1720.2	1993.4	1814.5
October	1889.7	1814.3	1895.8	1793.3
November	2032.8	1897.4	2009.1	1890.7
December	2014.5	1961.1	1990.3	1938.3

1. Using his creativity he will give a name and location to the Supermarket.
2. You should explain each step using theTable: Modeling in a Real Scenariothat is included below, as close to a real situation.
3. Make the forecast using at least four projection methods discussed in class and compare your results. Include the interpretation of them. For estimation you will use Excel QM tools.
4. The methods they will use are as follows: For the estimation of these criteria, you will use the Excel QM tool or QM for Windows.

• Trend chart for 4 years (scatter plot) (You can use regular Excel)
• Weighted Moving Average (2021)
• Exponential smoothing with adjustment trend (year 2021 only, alpha and beta is 0.5)
• Trend regression with graph (year 2021 only)

The document will follow the APA format. For reference on the APA format visit the website http://owl.english.purdue.edu/owl/resource/560/01/.

Table: Modeling a Real Scenario

Modeling in a Real Scenario (Company Name)
Step	Description
Definition of the problem
Development of a Model
Data collection
Developing a solution
Testing the solution
Analysis of the results
Implementation
Note: Next to this Table, attach results from the Excel Qm or QM for Windows programs that served as a support tool in the decision making of modeling a real scenario.