Objective Compliance

a) Identify the scenarios that require the use of forecasts

b) Analyze the different forecasting methods of qualitative models, time series models and causal models.

(Value 20 points)

In Topic 1: Forecasting and Decision Making in Module 3, the importance of using forecasting methods was discussed as part of decision making under uncertainty. In this work the student will look for a solution to the quarterly demand for Jaguar cars.

Instructions:

Make the forecast with the data of the Jaguar company. Using the trend equation you should forecast the demand for cars for each quarter.

Data: Jaguar X 20

Quarterly demand for the Jaguar X 20 at a Texas dealership is predicted by the equation

= 10 + 3x

where:

X = period (quarter): quarter 1 of last year = 0

quarter 2 of last year = 1

quarter 3 of last year = 3

quarter 4 of last year = 4

1 quarter of last year = 4, ect. y = predicted quarterly demand

Demand for luxury sedans is seasonal and the indices for the quarters 1,2,3, and 4 are, respectively, 0.80,1.00,1.30 and 0.90. Using the trend equation, forecast demand for the next year's quarter. Then adjust each forecast for seasonal (quarterly) variations.