Question: Two individuals, i = 1;2, decide whether to watch a movie or not in sequence. Individual 1 decides rst, followed by individual 2. There are
Two individuals, i = 1;2, decide whether to watch a movie or not in sequence. Individual 1 decides rst, followed by individual 2. There are two possible quality levels, exciting or boring. Before watching, no one knows the movie s quality. The common prior belief is half-half. There are two types of individuals. The rst type, referred to as "movie-goers," always goes watching every movie shown in the cinema regardless of its perceived quality. The second type, referred to as "movie-critics," goes watching a movie if and only if her posterior belief that the movie is exciting exceeds a half (based on all information available to her). Only the individual herself knows her own type. In the population, the proportion of movie-goers is 0:3 and the proportion of movie-critics is 0:7. Before their decision, each individual observes a private signal si 2 fF;Ug, where F stands for favorable impression, and U stands for unfavorable. Signal F is indicative of an exciting movie, 1 whereas signal U is indicative of a boring movie. Speci cally, Pr(si = Fjexciting) = Pr(si = Ujboring) = qi, where qi is the signal accuracy of individual i. Individuals signals are distributed independently conditional on the
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