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Ice cream sales data from a Chicago neighborhood is shown below. Develop an exponential smoothing forecast, using alpha values $0\mathrm{.}15,0\mathrm{.}4$ and $0\mathrm{.}5.$ Perform MAD error analysis for the $3$ different forecasts, which is a preferred forecast, and why. In performing the exponential forecast, start with a forecast for May $2014$ with $327$

$[$a$]$ What is the average error in the forecast for Exponential forecast with alpha $0\mathrm{.}15$

$[$b$]$ What is the average error in the forecast for Exponential forecast with alpha $0\mathrm{.}4$

$[$c$]$ What is the average error in the forecast for Exponentlal forecast with alpha $0\mathrm{.}5$

$[$d$]$ Which is a better forecast?

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