Question 1 (25 points): An Empirical Model for World Corona-Virus Cases In this question we will...

 

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Question 1 (25 points): An Empirical Model for World Corona-Virus Cases In this question we will develop an empirical model for Corona-Virus cases for the whole world based on the data from www.worldometers.info. The model is to be based on the last 30 days data. In the empirical model, we will need the model for the number of cases. The number of cases will only be a function of number of days. You can take the start day as 1, till today (October 20th), which is day 30. In the empirical modelling, we will use functions that we think represent the data by looking at the graphs provided by Worldometer. The proposed function is Cases (d) = Bo + B₁·d + B₂ · d² + B3 · e-Bad.cos(2 * π/7 * d) In this question you are required to perform the following: Through trial and error determine the best 3 values. The best values are those for which the error between the given number of cases and number of cases that your model produces is the least. For this you will first try an assumed set of 3 values and then determine number of cases by the expression given above. There you will use the variable d, or the number of days. Then, you find the absolute error between your calculated value and the data given for the number of Cases in Worldometer. The trial for the assumed 3 values for which you get smallest error is the set of 3 values for your model. (a) (15 Pts.) Determine 3 values through trial and error. You might find a computer program to be developed by you very helpful. Do not use regression models as your answers will not be accepted. You are just expected to use for-loops for your trial and error attempts. (b) (5 Pts.) Test your model for the cases after October 20th and comment on the out- comes. (c) (5 Pts.) Propose your own empirical model and justify its proposal. Question 1 (25 points): An Empirical Model for World Corona-Virus Cases In this question we will develop an empirical model for Corona-Virus cases for the whole world based on the data from www.worldometers.info. The model is to be based on the last 30 days data. In the empirical model, we will need the model for the number of cases. The number of cases will only be a function of number of days. You can take the start day as 1, till today (October 20th), which is day 30. In the empirical modelling, we will use functions that we think represent the data by looking at the graphs provided by Worldometer. The proposed function is Cases (d) = Bo + B₁·d + B₂ · d² + B3 · e-Bad.cos(2 * π/7 * d) In this question you are required to perform the following: Through trial and error determine the best 3 values. The best values are those for which the error between the given number of cases and number of cases that your model produces is the least. For this you will first try an assumed set of 3 values and then determine number of cases by the expression given above. There you will use the variable d, or the number of days. Then, you find the absolute error between your calculated value and the data given for the number of Cases in Worldometer. The trial for the assumed 3 values for which you get smallest error is the set of 3 values for your model. (a) (15 Pts.) Determine 3 values through trial and error. You might find a computer program to be developed by you very helpful. Do not use regression models as your answers will not be accepted. You are just expected to use for-loops for your trial and error attempts. (b) (5 Pts.) Test your model for the cases after October 20th and comment on the out- comes. (c) (5 Pts.) Propose your own empirical model and justify its proposal.

Answer rating: 100% (QA)

The B values that we will be using are Bo 0 B1 001 B2 001 By 001 Bad 001 This gives us the function Casesd 0 001 d 001 d 001 e 001 cos2 1 7 d Now we c... View the full answer