URGENT!! Please show all work and answer the questions fully! I will give excellent ratings if you answer it fully, so I can fully understand.

A local company sells green hats for St Patrick's Day to bars and restaurants in South$-$Western

Ontario. The operations manager of the company recognizes that green hat business is competitive and

risky, and the ability to correctly predict demand for the next season and deliver orders promptly is a big

factor in getting new customers and maintaining old ones. Customers typically don't place an order in

advance. The operations manager of the firm wants to be certain that enough drivers and vehicles are

available to deliver orders promptly and that they produce enough hats for the season. The operations

manager wants to be able to forecast the demand for $2025.$ From previous orders, the hat company has the

following information for $2015$ through $2024.$

a$)$ Forecast orders for $2020$ through $2025$ using $($i$)$ naive method, $($ii$)$ a $2-$year moving average,

$($iii$)$ a $3-$year moving average, $($iv$)$ a $3-$year weighted moving average. Use weights of $5,3,$ and $2,$

with the heavier weights on the more recent years, $($ v $)$ exponential smoothing with alpha$=0\mathrm{.}5.$

Assume that the initial forecast for $2015$ was $6,000.$

b$)$ Compute the mean absolute deviation $($MAD$),$ mean absolute percentage error $($MAPE$)$ and

mean squared deviation $($MSD$)$ for $2020$ through $2024$ for each of the methods used. Which

method would you recommend to forecast orders for $2025?$ Why?