1. Use Exponential smoothing forecasts with alpha of 0.1, 0.2, ..., 0.9 to predict January 2021 demand. Identify the value of alpha that results in the lowest MAD.

2. Find the monthly seasonal indices for the demand values using Simple Average (SA) method. Find the de-seasonalized demand values by dividing monthly demand by seasonal indices.

3. Use regression to perform trend analysis on the de-seasonalized demand values. Is trend analysis suitable for this data? Find MAD, the seasonally adjusted trend forecasts for January through March 2021 and explain the Excel Regression output (trend equation, r, r-squared, goodness of model).

Month/Yr.	PERIOD	PRICE	AIP	DIFF	ADV	DEMAND
	Jan. 2016	1	5.4	5.9	0.5	5.3	13.9
		2	5.5	6.6	1.1	6.8	14.5
		3	6.0	6.4	0.4	7.3	14.7
		4	6.1	6.1	0.0	7.3	14.9
		5	5.9	6.4	0.5	7.2	14.9
		6	5.9	6.3	0.4	6.5	14.6
		7	5.9	6.0	0.1	6.8	14.1
		8	6.8	6.0	-0.8	5.0	12.0
		9	6.8	5.8	-1.0	5.8	14.2
		10	6.4	6.3	-0.1	5.5	13.9
		11	6.5	6.3	-0.2	6.5	13.9
		12	6.3	6.2	-0.1	6.3	13.8
	Jan. 2017	13	6.1	6.5	0.4	7.0	14.0
		14	6.1	6.6	0.5	7.7	14.5
		15	6.0	6.3	0.3	6.8	16.0
		16	6.4	6.7	0.3	6.8	15.7
		17	6.2	6.5	0.3	7.1	15.8
		18	6.0	6.8	0.8	7.0	15.2
		19	6.1	6.6	0.5	7.2	15.9
		20	6.4	6.1	-0.3	7.5	16.2
		21	6.0	6.1	0.1	7.8	15.0
		22	6.2	6.2	0.0	8.2	16.9
		23	6.1	6.0	-0.1	8.3	17.1
		24	6.0	6.2	0.2	8.4	16.9
	Jan. 2018	25	6.1	6.7	0.6	8.9	17.4
		26	5.9	6.9	1.0	9.1	17.7
		27	6.0	5.8	-0.2	9.3	17.6
		28	6.3	5.8	-0.5	9.4	18.4
		29	6.0	6.0	0.0	9.3	18.6
		30	5.7	6.7	1.0	9.4	17.4
		31	5.6	6.4	0.8	9.5	18.4
		32	6.2	7.0	0.8	9.6	17.6
		33	6.4	7.2	0.8	9.7	16.7
		34	6.5	5.9	-0.6	9.9	18.2
		35	6.2	6.0	-0.2	9.8	18.5
		36	6.7	6.2	-0.5	9.9	19.1
	Jan. 2019	37	6.9	6.0	-0.9	10.1	19.0
		38	6.9	6.3	-0.6	10.2	19.0
		39	6.7	6.5	-0.2	10.5	19.8
		40	7.0	6.0	-1.0	10.3	19.8
		41	7.1	6.1	-1.0	9.9	20.0
		42	7.2	6.3	-0.9	10.5	20.9
		43	7.2	6.4	-0.8	10.6	19.6
		44	7.3	6.5	-0.8	10.5	19.5
		45	7.2	6.0	-1.2	11.6	18.4
		46	7.1	6.2	-0.9	10.1	19.3
		47	6.9	5.9	-1.0	10.3	19.3
		48	7.2	6.0	-1.2	10.7	19.9
	Jan. 2020	49	7.3	6.4	-0.9	10.9	20.0
		50	7.4	6.5	-0.9	10.8	20.1
		51	7.5	6.5	-1.0	11.1	20.1
		52	7.0	6.2	-0.8	11.2	20.2
		53	6.8	6.8	0.0	11.6	21.1
		54	7.4	6.9	-0.5	11.5	20.6
		55	7.3	6.5	-0.8	11.6	20.7
		56	7.3	6.9	-0.4	11.9	21.3
		57	7.2	7.0	-0.2	11.8	21.4
		58	7.5	6.8	-0.7	11.9	21.5
		59	7.5	6.8	-0.7	12.0	21.8
		60	7.5	6.5	-1.0	11.9	21.5
	Jan. 2021	61
	Feb. 2021	62
	Mar. 2021	63