1. Use exponential smoothing with an alpha value of = 0.50 to obtain forecasted sales (F_T) for Jan 2015-Dec 2015 (i.e. months 85-96). Note that you will need the Actual Sales (A_T) from Dec 2014 (i.e month 84) and a forecast from month 84 (use the Nave Method) to get the first exponential smoothing forecast. These values can be obtained from the data file provided. Insert your forecasted sales in the Exponential Smoothing Sales Forecast (F_T) column in the Table 2 below. Next, calculate the forecast errors for Jan 2015-Dec 2015 (i.e. months 85-96). Insert your forecast error values in the Forecast Error (FE_T) column in Table below. For your submitted you can simply copy and paste the completed Table 2.

Table 2: 2015 Sales Data and Exponential Smoothing Forecast

Year	Month	Month # (T)	Actual Sales (AT)
2014	Dec	84	21,951
2015	Jan	85	12,287
2015	Feb	86	11,519
2015	Mar	87	12,767
2015	Apr	88	13,235
2015	May	89	13,643
2015	Jun	90	13,552
2015	Jul	91	13,349
2015	Aug	92	10,240
2015	Sep	93	14,781
2015	Oct	94	17,123
2015	Nov	95	20,396
2015	Dec	96	23,609

2. Use the data obtained in Table 2 to calculate the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) for 2015 when using the Exponential Smoothing method to forecast sales.

3. Which method would you recommend for Napa Valley Winery to use to forecast their sales? Justify your answer.

CAN YOU HELP WITH #1-#3 Please!!!!