Use exponential smoothing with trend adjustment to forecast demand for period 11. Let = 0.5, = 0.3, and let the initial trend value be 12 and the initial forecast be 200.

Period	Actual Demand
1	200
2	212
3	214
4	222
5	236
6	221
7	240
8	244
9	250
10	266

2. A restaurant has tracked the number of meals served at lunch over the last four weeks. The data show little in terms of trends, but do display substantial variation by day of the week. Use the following information to determine the seasonal (daily) indices for this restaurant. Round all numbers in your calculations to four decimal places.

	Week
Day	1	2	3	4
Sunday	40	35	39	43
Monday	54	55	54	59
Tuesday	61	60	65	64
Wednesday	72	77	78	74
Thursday	89	80	81	79
Friday	91	90	99	95
Saturday	80	82	84	83

3. Jim's department at a local department store has tracked the sales of a product over the last ten weeks. Forecast demand using exponential smoothing with an alpha of 0.4, and an initial forecast of 25.0 for period 1. Calculate the MAD covering periods 1-10. Calculate the tracking signal covering periods 1-10. What do you recommend?

Period	Demand
1	24
2	23
3	26
4	37
5	26
6	30
7	32
8	27
9	25
10	28