Use the information in problem $5$ to determine the value of a the produces the most accurate ES forecast. Use three values for a: $0\mathrm{.}6,0\mathrm{.}8,$ and $0\mathrm{.}4/$ Base your answer on the MAD. Use a forecasted NCF of $$16,000($calculated using $2-$Day MA$)$ for Day $3.$