Use the information in problem $5$ to determine the value for $\backslash$alpha that produces the most accurate ES forecast. Use three values for $\backslash$alpha : $0\mathrm{.}6,0\mathrm{.}8,$ and $0\mathrm{.}4.$ Base your answer on the MAD. Use a forecasted NCF of $ $16,000($calculated using a $2-$Day MA$)$ for Day $3.$