Question: Use the Quadrant Hypothesis Generation technique to develop a set of three to five hypotheses that address the question: How will Cuba respond to the
Use the Quadrant Hypothesis Generation technique to develop a set of three to five hypotheses that address the question: How will Cuba respond to the launch of Radio Marti broadcasts?
STEP :Identify two key dimensions or drivers influencing Cubas decision making about how to respond using Structured Brainstorming or drawing from expert analysis.
STEP :Construct a times matrix using the two drivers or primary dimensions of the issue see Figure
STEP :Think of each key dimension or driver as a continuum from one extreme to another. Write the extremes of each of the drivers at the end of the vertical and horizontal axes.
STEP :In each quadrant, describe a likely endstate that would be shaped by the two dimensions or drivers. Some quadrants may have more than one endstate defined.
The following two steps form part of the technique but will not be used in this case study:
STEP :Develop signposts or indicators that show whether developments are moving toward one of the endstates.
STEP :Use the signposts to develop intelligence collection strategies to determine the direction in which events are moving.
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