Using Excel data set titled "STAT 510 Data Set 1". This file presents quarterly data from the first quarter of 1961 through the first quarter of 2020 on Real GDP (RGDP), the unemployment rate (UR), the Consumer Price Index (CPI), and the M1 money supply (M1). The trend variable (TREND) is also included.

Question 1: Suppose we conduct a regression with RGDP as the dependent variable and TREND, UR, CPI and M1 as the explanatory variables. We wish to test this model for heteroscedasticity. Use the Breusch-Pagan-Godfrey test and the modified White's test at the 0.10 level to determine whether heteroscedasticity exists. If heteroscedasticity exists, what variables might be causing it based on your regression results? You do not need to try and correct for heteroscedasticity in this problem.

QUARTERLY DATA RGDP: Real GDP in 2012 dollars (millions of dollars) UR: Civilian Unemployment Rate (percent) CPI: Consumer Price Index M1: M1 Money Supply (millions of dollars) TREND: Trend (observation number) YEAR 1961 1961 1961 1961 1962 1962 1962 1962 1963 1963 1963 1963 1964 1964 1964 1964 1965 1965 1965 1965 1966 1966 1966 1966 1967 1967 1967 1967 1968 1968 1968 1968 1969 1969 1969 1969 1970 1970 QTR 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 RGDP 3192.380 3194.653 3203.759 3275.757 3258.088 3274.029 3232.009 3253.826 3309.059 3372.581 3438.721 3500.054 3531.683 3575.070 3586.827 3625.981 3666.669 3747.278 3771.845 3851.366 3893.296 3954.121 3966.335 4062.311 4113.629 4205.086 4301.973 4406.693 4421.747 4459.195 4495.777 4535.591 4538.370 4581.309 4615.853 4709.993 4788.688 4825.799 TREND 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 UR 5.100 5.267 5.600 5.133 5.233 5.533 6.267 6.800 7.000 6.767 6.200 5.633 5.533 5.567 5.533 5.767 5.733 5.500 5.567 5.467 5.200 5.000 4.967 4.900 4.667 4.367 4.100 3.867 3.833 3.767 3.700 3.833 3.833 3.800 3.900 3.733 3.567 3.533 CPI 29.043 29.193 29.370 29.397 29.573 29.590 29.780 29.840 29.830 29.947 29.990 30.107 30.220 30.307 30.380 30.477 30.533 30.720 30.803 30.930 30.980 31.050 31.193 31.290 31.490 31.583 31.750 32.047 32.337 32.617 32.883 32.967 33.167 33.500 33.867 34.200 34.533 35.000 M1 140.533 141.533 140.267 139.900 139.600 140.900 140.833 141.533 142.567 143.400 144.700 145.633 146.600 146.467 147.267 148.800 150.167 151.700 153.167 154.167 155.233 157.767 159.833 161.033 161.967 163.833 166.833 169.733 171.567 171.033 171.533 173.233 175.633 179.500 182.433 184.833 188.000 191.667 1970 1970 1971 1971 1971 1971 1972 1972 1972 1972 1973 1973 1973 1973 1974 1974 1974 1974 1975 1975 1975 1975 1976 1976 1976 1976 1977 1977 1977 1977 1978 1978 1978 1978 1979 1979 1979 1979 1980 1980 1980 1980 1981 1981 1981 1981 1982 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 4844.779 4920.605 4935.564 4968.164 4943.935 4936.594 4943.600 4989.159 4935.693 5069.746 5097.179 5139.128 5151.245 5245.974 5365.045 5415.712 5506.396 5642.669 5704.098 5674.100 5727.960 5678.713 5692.210 5638.411 5616.526 5548.156 5587.800 5683.444 5759.972 5889.500 5932.711 5965.265 6008.504 6079.494 6197.686 6309.514 6309.652 6329.791 6574.390 6640.497 6729.755 6741.854 6749.063 6799.200 6816.203 6837.641 6696.753 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 3.400 3.400 3.433 3.567 3.567 4.167 4.767 5.167 5.833 5.933 5.900 6.033 5.933 5.767 5.700 5.567 5.367 4.933 4.933 4.800 4.767 5.133 5.200 5.633 6.600 8.267 8.867 8.467 8.300 7.733 7.567 7.733 7.767 7.500 7.133 6.900 6.667 6.333 6.000 6.033 5.900 5.867 5.700 5.867 5.967 6.300 7.333 35.433 35.867 36.433 36.933 37.500 38.100 38.633 39.033 39.600 39.933 40.300 40.700 41.000 41.333 41.600 41.933 42.367 43.033 43.933 44.800 45.933 47.300 48.567 49.933 51.467 52.567 53.200 54.267 55.267 55.900 56.400 57.300 58.133 59.200 60.233 61.067 61.967 63.033 64.467 65.967 67.500 69.200 71.400 73.700 76.033 79.033 81.700 195.800 199.333 200.933 201.833 203.467 205.633 207.167 209.900 213.667 217.233 221.833 225.667 227.767 232.233 236.033 240.967 246.867 251.800 254.767 257.700 260.967 265.267 267.767 270.133 273.400 275.100 279.267 284.500 286.433 290.633 295.600 298.600 303.933 311.233 317.333 322.333 328.633 335.567 343.900 349.800 355.333 360.333 370.333 378.433 381.133 388.100 385.900 1982 1982 1982 1983 1983 1983 1983 1984 1984 1984 1984 1985 1985 1985 1985 1986 1986 1986 1986 1987 1987 1987 1987 1988 1988 1988 1988 1989 1989 1989 1989 1990 1990 1990 1990 1991 1991 1991 1991 1992 1992 1992 1992 1993 1993 1993 1993 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 6688.794 6813.535 6947.042 6895.559 6978.135 6902.105 6794.878 6825.876 6799.781 6802.497 6892.144 7048.982 7189.896 7339.893 7483.371 7612.668 7686.059 7749.151 7824.247 7893.136 8013.674 8073.239 8148.603 8185.303 8263.639 8308.021 8369.930 8460.233 8533.635 8680.162 8725.006 8839.641 8891.435 9009.913 9101.508 9170.977 9238.923 9257.128 9358.289 9392.251 9398.499 9312.937 9269.367 9341.642 9388.845 9421.565 9534.346 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 100 101 102 103 104 105 106 107 108 109 110 111 112 113 114 115 116 117 118 119 120 121 122 123 124 125 126 127 128 129 130 131 132 7.667 7.400 7.433 7.400 7.400 8.233 8.833 9.433 9.900 10.667 10.367 10.133 9.367 8.533 7.867 7.433 7.433 7.300 7.233 7.300 7.200 7.033 7.033 7.167 6.967 6.833 6.600 6.267 6.000 5.833 5.700 5.467 5.467 5.333 5.200 5.233 5.233 5.367 5.300 5.333 5.700 6.133 6.600 6.833 6.867 7.100 7.367 83.233 85.567 87.933 89.767 92.267 93.767 94.600 95.967 97.633 97.933 98.000 99.133 100.100 101.100 102.533 103.500 104.400 105.300 106.267 107.233 107.900 109.000 109.567 109.033 109.700 110.467 111.800 113.067 114.267 115.333 116.233 117.567 119.000 120.300 121.667 123.633 124.600 125.867 128.033 129.300 131.533 133.767 134.767 135.567 136.600 137.733 138.667 399.333 409.400 415.033 425.767 426.933 432.133 442.433 447.100 452.100 470.267 484.033 499.067 510.367 519.200 528.000 537.300 541.667 547.600 562.400 575.933 596.200 613.267 626.700 651.200 678.800 708.333 731.567 744.300 745.167 753.200 758.567 772.700 782.800 784.967 784.167 775.900 779.400 789.133 798.333 806.367 815.333 822.233 832.833 849.533 866.033 887.533 924.100 1994 1994 1994 1994 1995 1995 1995 1995 1996 1996 1996 1996 1997 1997 1997 1997 1998 1998 1998 1998 1999 1999 1999 1999 2000 2000 2000 2000 2001 2001 2001 2001 2002 2002 2002 2002 2003 2003 2003 2003 2004 2004 2004 2004 2005 2005 2005 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 9637.732 9732.979 9834.510 9850.973 9908.347 9955.641 10091.049 10188.954 10327.019 10387.382 10506.372 10543.644 10575.100 10665.060 10737.478 10817.896 10998.322 11096.976 11212.205 11284.587 11472.137 11615.636 11715.393 11832.486 11942.032 12091.614 12287.000 12403.293 12498.694 12662.385 12877.593 12924.179 13160.842 13178.419 13260.506 13222.690 13299.984 13244.784 13280.859 13397.002 13478.152 13538.072 13559.032 13634.253 13751.543 13985.073 14145.645 133 134 135 136 137 138 139 140 141 142 143 144 145 146 147 148 149 150 151 152 153 154 155 156 157 158 159 160 161 162 163 164 165 166 167 168 169 170 171 172 173 174 175 176 177 178 179 7.600 7.633 7.367 7.133 7.067 6.800 6.633 6.567 6.200 6.000 5.633 5.467 5.667 5.667 5.567 5.533 5.500 5.267 5.333 5.233 5.000 4.867 4.667 4.633 4.400 4.533 4.433 4.300 4.267 4.233 4.067 4.033 3.933 4.000 3.900 4.233 4.400 4.833 5.500 5.700 5.833 5.733 5.867 5.867 6.133 6.133 5.833 139.733 140.800 142.033 143.067 144.100 144.767 145.967 146.700 147.533 148.900 149.767 150.867 152.100 152.867 153.700 155.067 156.400 157.300 158.667 159.633 160.000 160.800 161.667 162.000 162.533 163.367 164.133 164.733 165.967 167.200 168.433 170.100 171.433 173.000 174.233 175.900 177.133 177.633 177.500 178.067 179.467 180.433 181.500 183.367 183.067 184.433 185.133 949.567 975.000 1014.767 1034.100 1062.867 1094.333 1122.267 1136.000 1143.200 1151.067 1150.600 1148.500 1146.267 1144.300 1132.967 1121.533 1118.833 1103.400 1083.500 1077.500 1064.600 1069.233 1069.600 1076.233 1077.300 1076.967 1091.967 1097.133 1101.733 1098.267 1112.067 1112.767 1107.733 1101.133 1093.233 1102.300 1120.467 1164.867 1173.233 1191.500 1189.767 1194.100 1211.233 1235.000 1266.533 1293.633 1301.033 2005 2006 2006 2006 2006 2007 2007 2007 2007 2008 2008 2008 2008 2009 2009 2009 2009 2010 2010 2010 2010 2011 2011 2011 2011 2012 2012 2012 2012 2013 2013 2013 2013 2014 2014 2014 2014 2015 2015 2015 2015 2016 2016 2016 2016 2017 2017 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 14221.147 14329.523 14464.984 14609.876 14771.602 14839.782 14972.054 15066.597 15267.026 15302.705 15326.368 15456.928 15493.328 15582.085 15666.738 15761.967 15671.383 15752.308 15667.032 15328.027 15155.940 15134.117 15189.222 15356.058 15415.145 15557.277 15671.967 15750.625 15712.754 15825.096 15820.700 16004.107 16129.418 16198.807 16220.667 16239.138 16382.964 16403.180 16531.685 16663.649 16621.696 16830.111 17033.572 17113.945 17254.744 17397.029 17438.802 180 181 182 183 184 185 186 187 188 189 190 191 192 193 194 195 196 197 198 199 200 201 202 203 204 205 206 207 208 209 210 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 220 221 222 223 224 225 226 5.700 5.600 5.433 5.433 5.300 5.100 4.967 4.967 4.733 4.633 4.633 4.433 4.500 4.500 4.667 4.800 5.000 5.333 6.000 6.867 8.267 9.300 9.633 9.933 9.833 9.633 9.467 9.500 9.033 9.067 9.000 8.633 8.267 8.200 8.033 7.800 7.733 7.533 7.233 6.933 6.667 6.233 6.100 5.700 5.567 5.400 5.100 186.700 188.167 189.367 191.400 192.367 193.667 196.600 198.433 199.467 201.267 203.167 202.333 204.317 206.631 207.939 210.490 212.770 215.538 218.861 213.849 212.378 213.507 215.344 217.030 217.374 217.297 217.934 219.699 222.044 224.568 226.033 227.047 228.326 228.808 229.841 231.369 232.299 232.045 233.300 234.163 235.608 236.839 237.459 236.920 235.355 236.912 237.816 1318.933 1336.100 1352.267 1370.900 1370.267 1367.833 1374.433 1375.800 1381.533 1380.867 1368.567 1369.400 1368.867 1375.167 1372.900 1375.100 1384.500 1395.833 1428.133 1530.300 1579.300 1628.533 1660.000 1684.533 1698.333 1712.967 1744.200 1815.067 1875.033 1931.200 2079.033 2156.600 2215.733 2260.367 2351.000 2435.233 2476.633 2525.733 2559.767 2636.767 2727.167 2801.367 2834.133 2897.533 2984.600 3003.133 3035.233 2017 2017 2018 2018 2018 2018 2019 2019 2019 2019 2020 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 17456.225 17523.374 17622.486 17706.705 17784.185 17863.023 17995.150 18120.843 18223.758 18323.963 18511.576 227 228 229 230 231 232 233 234 235 236 237 5.000 4.933 4.867 4.933 4.733 4.667 4.333 4.300 4.100 4.100 3.900 237.888 237.848 239.452 240.548 242.177 243.949 244.010 245.297 247.301 249.442 250.468 3063.967 3131.067 3231.567 3296.700 3342.467 3411.500 3483.433 3552.767 3598.967 3641.900 3657.567 t: df: 1 0.5 T-Distribution 0 2 P-value for Two-Tailed Right hand Tail of T-Value CHI SQ CHI SQ: 40 df: 47 0.755404 Area to the right of Zero, Pvalue F: df1: df2: 3.23E-05 F-Statistic 12 5 18 p-value for F statistic RGDP TREND UR CPI M1 3192.380 1 5.100 29.043 140.533 3194.653 2 5.267 29.193 141.533 3203.759 3 5.600 29.370 140.267 3275.757 4 5.133 29.397 139.900 3258.088 5 5.233 29.573 139.600 3274.029 6 5.533 29.590 140.900 3232.009 7 6.267 29.780 140.833 3253.826 8 6.800 29.840 141.533 3309.059 9 7.000 29.830 142.567 3372.581 10 6.767 29.947 143.400 3438.721 11 6.200 29.990 144.700 3500.054 12 5.633 30.107 145.633 3531.683 13 5.533 30.220 146.600 3575.070 14 5.567 30.307 146.467 3586.827 15 5.533 30.380 147.267 3625.981 16 5.767 30.477 148.800 3666.669 17 5.733 30.533 150.167 3747.278 18 5.500 30.720 151.700 3771.845 19 5.567 30.803 153.167 3851.366 20 5.467 30.930 154.167 3893.296 21 5.200 30.980 155.233 3954.121 22 5.000 31.050 157.767 3966.335 23 4.967 31.193 159.833 4062.311 24 4.900 31.290 161.033 4113.629 25 4.667 31.490 161.967 4205.086 26 4.367 31.583 163.833 4301.973 27 4.100 31.750 166.833 4406.693 28 3.867 32.047 169.733 4421.747 29 3.833 32.337 171.567 4459.195 30 3.767 32.617 171.033 4495.777 31 3.700 32.883 171.533 4535.591 32 3.833 32.967 173.233 4538.370 33 3.833 33.167 175.633 4581.309 34 3.800 33.500 179.500 4615.853 35 3.900 33.867 182.433 4709.993 36 3.733 34.200 184.833 4788.688 37 3.567 34.533 188.000 4825.799 38 3.533 35.000 191.667 4844.779 39 3.400 35.433 195.800 4920.605 40 3.400 35.867 199.333 4935.564 41 3.433 36.433 200.933 4968.164 42 3.567 36.933 201.833 4943.935 43 3.567 37.500 203.467 4936.594 44 4.167 38.100 205.633 4943.600 45 4.767 38.633 207.167 4989.159 46 5.167 39.033 209.900 4935.693 47 5.833 39.600 213.667 5069.746 48 5.933 39.933 217.233 5097.179 5139.128 5151.245 5245.974 5365.045 5415.712 5506.396 5642.669 5704.098 5674.100 5727.960 5678.713 5692.210 5638.411 5616.526 5548.156 5587.800 5683.444 5759.972 5889.500 5932.711 5965.265 6008.504 6079.494 6197.686 6309.514 6309.652 6329.791 6574.390 6640.497 6729.755 6741.854 6749.063 6799.200 6816.203 6837.641 6696.753 6688.794 6813.535 6947.042 6895.559 6978.135 6902.105 6794.878 6825.876 6799.781 6802.497 6892.144 7048.982 7189.896 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 5.900 6.033 5.933 5.767 5.700 5.567 5.367 4.933 4.933 4.800 4.767 5.133 5.200 5.633 6.600 8.267 8.867 8.467 8.300 7.733 7.567 7.733 7.767 7.500 7.133 6.900 6.667 6.333 6.000 6.033 5.900 5.867 5.700 5.867 5.967 6.300 7.333 7.667 7.400 7.433 7.400 7.400 8.233 8.833 9.433 9.900 10.667 10.367 10.133 9.367 40.300 40.700 41.000 41.333 41.600 41.933 42.367 43.033 43.933 44.800 45.933 47.300 48.567 49.933 51.467 52.567 53.200 54.267 55.267 55.900 56.400 57.300 58.133 59.200 60.233 61.067 61.967 63.033 64.467 65.967 67.500 69.200 71.400 73.700 76.033 79.033 81.700 83.233 85.567 87.933 89.767 92.267 93.767 94.600 95.967 97.633 97.933 98.000 99.133 100.100 221.833 225.667 227.767 232.233 236.033 240.967 246.867 251.800 254.767 257.700 260.967 265.267 267.767 270.133 273.400 275.100 279.267 284.500 286.433 290.633 295.600 298.600 303.933 311.233 317.333 322.333 328.633 335.567 343.900 349.800 355.333 360.333 370.333 378.433 381.133 388.100 385.900 399.333 409.400 415.033 425.767 426.933 432.133 442.433 447.100 452.100 470.267 484.033 499.067 510.367 7339.893 7483.371 7612.668 7686.059 7749.151 7824.247 7893.136 8013.674 8073.239 8148.603 8185.303 8263.639 8308.021 8369.930 8460.233 8533.635 8680.162 8725.006 8839.641 8891.435 9009.913 9101.508 9170.977 9238.923 9257.128 9358.289 9392.251 9398.499 9312.937 9269.367 9341.642 9388.845 9421.565 9534.346 9637.732 9732.979 9834.510 9850.973 9908.347 9955.641 10091.049 10188.954 10327.019 10387.382 10506.372 10543.644 10575.100 10665.060 10737.478 10817.896 99 100 101 102 103 104 105 106 107 108 109 110 111 112 113 114 115 116 117 118 119 120 121 122 123 124 125 126 127 128 129 130 131 132 133 134 135 136 137 138 139 140 141 142 143 144 145 146 147 148 8.533 7.867 7.433 7.433 7.300 7.233 7.300 7.200 7.033 7.033 7.167 6.967 6.833 6.600 6.267 6.000 5.833 5.700 5.467 5.467 5.333 5.200 5.233 5.233 5.367 5.300 5.333 5.700 6.133 6.600 6.833 6.867 7.100 7.367 7.600 7.633 7.367 7.133 7.067 6.800 6.633 6.567 6.200 6.000 5.633 5.467 5.667 5.667 5.567 5.533 101.100 102.533 103.500 104.400 105.300 106.267 107.233 107.900 109.000 109.567 109.033 109.700 110.467 111.800 113.067 114.267 115.333 116.233 117.567 119.000 120.300 121.667 123.633 124.600 125.867 128.033 129.300 131.533 133.767 134.767 135.567 136.600 137.733 138.667 139.733 140.800 142.033 143.067 144.100 144.767 145.967 146.700 147.533 148.900 149.767 150.867 152.100 152.867 153.700 155.067 519.200 528.000 537.300 541.667 547.600 562.400 575.933 596.200 613.267 626.700 651.200 678.800 708.333 731.567 744.300 745.167 753.200 758.567 772.700 782.800 784.967 784.167 775.900 779.400 789.133 798.333 806.367 815.333 822.233 832.833 849.533 866.033 887.533 924.100 949.567 975.000 1014.767 1034.100 1062.867 1094.333 1122.267 1136.000 1143.200 1151.067 1150.600 1148.500 1146.267 1144.300 1132.967 1121.533 10998.322 11096.976 11212.205 11284.587 11472.137 11615.636 11715.393 11832.486 11942.032 12091.614 12287.000 12403.293 12498.694 12662.385 12877.593 12924.179 13160.842 13178.419 13260.506 13222.690 13299.984 13244.784 13280.859 13397.002 13478.152 13538.072 13559.032 13634.253 13751.543 13985.073 14145.645 14221.147 14329.523 14464.984 14609.876 14771.602 14839.782 14972.054 15066.597 15267.026 15302.705 15326.368 15456.928 15493.328 15582.085 15666.738 15761.967 15671.383 15752.308 15667.032 149 150 151 152 153 154 155 156 157 158 159 160 161 162 163 164 165 166 167 168 169 170 171 172 173 174 175 176 177 178 179 180 181 182 183 184 185 186 187 188 189 190 191 192 193 194 195 196 197 198 5.500 5.267 5.333 5.233 5.000 4.867 4.667 4.633 4.400 4.533 4.433 4.300 4.267 4.233 4.067 4.033 3.933 4.000 3.900 4.233 4.400 4.833 5.500 5.700 5.833 5.733 5.867 5.867 6.133 6.133 5.833 5.700 5.600 5.433 5.433 5.300 5.100 4.967 4.967 4.733 4.633 4.633 4.433 4.500 4.500 4.667 4.800 5.000 5.333 6.000 156.400 157.300 158.667 159.633 160.000 160.800 161.667 162.000 162.533 163.367 164.133 164.733 165.967 167.200 168.433 170.100 171.433 173.000 174.233 175.900 177.133 177.633 177.500 178.067 179.467 180.433 181.500 183.367 183.067 184.433 185.133 186.700 188.167 189.367 191.400 192.367 193.667 196.600 198.433 199.467 201.267 203.167 202.333 204.317 206.631 207.939 210.490 212.770 215.538 218.861 1118.833 1103.400 1083.500 1077.500 1064.600 1069.233 1069.600 1076.233 1077.300 1076.967 1091.967 1097.133 1101.733 1098.267 1112.067 1112.767 1107.733 1101.133 1093.233 1102.300 1120.467 1164.867 1173.233 1191.500 1189.767 1194.100 1211.233 1235.000 1266.533 1293.633 1301.033 1318.933 1336.100 1352.267 1370.900 1370.267 1367.833 1374.433 1375.800 1381.533 1380.867 1368.567 1369.400 1368.867 1375.167 1372.900 1375.100 1384.500 1395.833 1428.133 15328.027 15155.940 15134.117 15189.222 15356.058 15415.145 15557.277 15671.967 15750.625 15712.754 15825.096 15820.700 16004.107 16129.418 16198.807 16220.667 16239.138 16382.964 16403.180 16531.685 16663.649 16621.696 16830.111 17033.572 17113.945 17254.744 17397.029 17438.802 17456.225 17523.374 17622.486 17706.705 17784.185 17863.023 17995.150 18120.843 18223.758 18323.963 18511.576 199 200 201 202 203 204 205 206 207 208 209 210 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 220 221 222 223 224 225 226 227 228 229 230 231 232 233 234 235 236 237 6.867 8.267 9.300 9.633 9.933 9.833 9.633 9.467 9.500 9.033 9.067 9.000 8.633 8.267 8.200 8.033 7.800 7.733 7.533 7.233 6.933 6.667 6.233 6.100 5.700 5.567 5.400 5.100 5.000 4.933 4.867 4.933 4.733 4.667 4.333 4.300 4.100 4.100 3.900 213.849 212.378 213.507 215.344 217.030 217.374 217.297 217.934 219.699 222.044 224.568 226.033 227.047 228.326 228.808 229.841 231.369 232.299 232.045 233.300 234.163 235.608 236.839 237.459 236.920 235.355 236.912 237.816 237.888 237.848 239.452 240.548 242.177 243.949 244.010 245.297 247.301 249.442 250.468 1530.300 1579.300 1628.533 1660.000 1684.533 1698.333 1712.967 1744.200 1815.067 1875.033 1931.200 2079.033 2156.600 2215.733 2260.367 2351.000 2435.233 2476.633 2525.733 2559.767 2636.767 2727.167 2801.367 2834.133 2897.533 2984.600 3003.133 3035.233 3063.967 3131.067 3231.567 3296.700 3342.467 3411.500 3483.433 3552.767 3598.967 3641.900 3657.567 Regression Statistics Multiple R 0.995166912969 R Square 0.990357184669 Adjusted R Square 0.990190929232 Standard Error 456.3763071052 Observations 237 e2 5523.6019295 5700.7056223 13448.535657 4694.7012961 1332.6694326 6630.7328764 21747.016141 58762.810706 94982.744769 86513.814816 48472.999365 19368.858605 14196.909813 19071.489081 12659.293093 27231.107545 28447.136247 28602.920249 30677.989141 41036.994404 26410.887755 23414.208207 15645.474701 31088.287821 21700.749819 22070.984391 25235.57868 32142.990087 22361.153943 18780.332576 P-value 1.067944E-67 1.717969E-13 7.46388E-20 5.03309E-17 7.94775E-07 UR Re 1000 Residuals Observation 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 t Stat 24.975844807 7.8313652459 -10.01524061 9.0744628541 5.0748784977 500 0 -500.000 .000 .000 3 4 5 6 -1000 CPI Re 1000 Residuals Intercept TREND UR CPI M1 MS F 1240686853 5956.840895 208279.33369 500 0 0.000 50.000 10 -500 -1000 M1 Re 1000 Residuals Regression Residual Total ANOVA df SS 4 4962747410.35 232 48320805.4154 236 5011068215.76 Coefficients Standard Error 3079.112185087 123.283604976 28.15695515986 3.5954082431 -194.105769972 19.3810391114 32.40110681248 3.57058123809 0.424761876568 0.08369892536 RESIDUAL OUTPUT Predicted RGDP Residuals 3118.059061298 74.320938702 3119.149982694 75.5030173057 3087.791178357 115.967821643 3207.239109664 68.5178903362 3221.5822548 36.5057451997 3192.599687855 81.4293121452 3084.540304537 147.468695463 3011.415582101 242.410417899 3000.866292804 308.192707196 3078.448691649 294.132308351 3218.555154862 220.165845138 3360.881953219 139.172046781 3412.532213962 119.150786038 3436.970437796 138.099562204 3474.313475956 112.513524044 3460.962493325 165.018506675 3498.006211435 168.662788565 3578.154021071 169.123978929 3596.693667886 175.151332114 3648.790102116 202.575897884 3730.78173061 162.51426939 3801.103980662 153.017019338 3841.253128009 125.081871991 3885.992289078 176.318710922 3966.317256345 147.311743655 4056.522934635 148.563065365 4143.115898553 158.857101447 4227.408337836 179.284662164 4272.210536411 149.536463589 4322.153646476 137.041353524 500 0 0.000 -500 1000.0 -1000 TREND 1000 ls e2 5523.602 5700.706 13448.54 4694.701 1332.669 6630.733 21747 58762.81 94982.74 86513.81 48473 19368.86 14196.91 19071.49 12659.29 27231.11 28447.14 28602.92 30678 41037 26410.89 23414.21 15645.47 31088.29 21700.75 22071 25235.58 32143 22361.15 18780.33 15295.09 24897.36 15602.85 14587.91 17809.35 24106.9 26019.5 21641.79 9265.523 16482.79 10530.31 13539.25 2017.621 11135 33453.53 69604.14 85057.56 163732 500 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 4372.103662389 4377.802035644 4413.45864067 4460.528569689 4482.401321854 4554.729036117 4627.382401152 4678.687525371 4748.521411903 4792.219671978 4832.946681002 4851.805705927 4899.017066013 4831.071540676 4760.696925696 4725.333031388 4644.046703495 4665.108434622 4713.569892577 4730.434774993 4788.614639134 4861.820194609 4913.171924715 4980.105510066 5063.630193911 5199.595879192 5258.173957383 5341.538609282 5414.274566625 5417.367394841 5474.68727199 5464.018509247 5355.609139342 5096.619790565 5030.603825875 5173.187190112 5266.917420041 5427.372345714 5506.190466596 5532.431741855 5583.384823701 5700.965259819 5836.366521789 5938.939555002 6044.224852443 6174.589927204 6317.430074424 6390.224592542 6496.294363195 6588.127201651 123.673337611 157.788964356 124.91135933 120.780430311 133.451678146 155.263963883 161.305598848 147.111474629 96.2575880974 128.385328022 102.617318998 116.358294073 44.9179339872 105.522459324 182.903074304 263.825968612 291.646296505 404.637565378 383.609107423 408.693225007 362.630360866 384.153805391 451.873075285 435.606489934 442.765806089 443.073120808 445.924042617 332.561390718 313.685433375 261.345605159 217.52272801 174.392490753 260.916860658 451.536209435 557.196174125 510.256809888 493.054579959 462.127654286 426.520533404 432.833258145 425.119176299 378.528740181 361.319478211 370.574444998 265.427147557 155.201072796 256.959925576 250.272407458 233.460636806 153.726798349 15295.094436 24897.357273 15602.84769 14587.912346 17809.3504 24106.898481 26019.49622 21641.785967 9265.5232663 16482.792451 10530.314158 13539.252599 2017.6207937 11134.989422 33453.53459 69604.141714 85057.562265 163731.55932 147155.9473 167030.15217 131500.77862 147574.1462 204189.27617 189753.01407 196041.55904 196313.79038 198848.25178 110597.0786 98398.551112 68301.525336 47316.137201 30412.740831 68077.608175 203884.94843 310467.57646 260362.01204 243102.81882 213561.96886 181919.76542 187344.62936 180726.31406 143284.00714 130551.76533 137325.41929 70451.57066 24087.372997 66028.403352 62636.277935 54503.868938 23631.928531 TREND 1000 Residuals 147156 167030 131501 147574 204189 189753 196042 196314 198848 110597 98398.55 68301.53 47316.14 30412.74 68077.61 203885 310468 260362 243103 213562 181920 187345 180726 143284 130552 137325 70451.57 24087.37 66028.4 62636.28 54503.87 23631.93 619.9018 1.602041 4519.483 11969.81 26681.29 36155.42 50715.85 37039.7 117326 136610 131660 170690 115672 129529 64497.78 66932.64 47711.92 84453.5 500 0 -500 -1000 0 50 134452 185708 201765 189194 209390 212706 197667 161472 198622 178531 145338 162568 202715 265069 317932 371637 315366 362656 372377 406179 379361 387267 402890 394076 431651 450306 494528 533097 697283 727750 634711 658793 652315 514157 412043 376640 421136 558948 603810 713422 673203 629287 615596 703648 717509 819105 813490 746736 742140 731213 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 100 101 102 103 104 105 106 107 108 109 110 111 112 113 114 115 116 117 118 119 120 121 122 123 124 125 126 127 128 129 130 6724.165172226 6797.934282593 6883.430100384 6947.047627064 6860.097095291 6878.939792114 7038.73680472 7139.499012242 7238.087299699 7347.742577412 7264.955146239 7208.024609087 7165.981836998 7159.681753574 7056.461124557 7150.857439663 7267.412582415 7480.504840345 7706.56977387 7914.310066624 8061.850877476 8121.023622294 8206.742596716 8285.447482233 8337.733566709 8415.510344107 8518.908747782 8571.132298011 8566.534559517 8666.83683434 8758.260041474 8884.778452976 9024.087367984 9143.255316938 9241.736668102 9327.214944127 9449.868022552 9528.756659097 9625.836139842 9723.815567474 9805.713142186 9866.677833833 9914.129770557 10029.33731774 10095.47773627 10128.63374582 10147.97152948 10122.44937469 10138.32939232 10200.50586981 24.8978277741 1.26571740742 -67.227100384 -109.40662706 -163.34409529 -190.14579211 -225.20180472 -192.45701224 -342.5282997 -369.60757741 -362.85014624 -413.14660909 -340.105837 -359.90075357 -253.96412456 -258.71343966 -218.43058242 -290.60884034 -366.67677387 -430.93906662 -449.18287748 -434.96462229 -457.59159672 -461.20048223 -444.59756671 -401.83634411 -445.66974778 -422.52929801 -381.23155952 -403.19783434 -450.23904147 -514.84845298 -563.85436798 -609.62031694 -561.5746681 -602.20894413 -610.22702255 -637.3216591 -615.92313984 -622.30756747 -634.73614219 -627.75483383 -657.00177056 -671.04831774 -703.22673627 -730.13474582 -835.03452948 -853.08237469 -796.68739232 -811.66086981 619.90182787 1.6020405554 4519.4830261 11969.810046 26681.293466 36155.422259 50715.852849 37039.701561 117325.63609 136609.76128 131660.22863 170690.1206 115671.98036 129528.55242 64497.776562 66932.643862 47711.919334 84453.498086 134451.8565 185708.47914 201765.25742 189194.22265 209390.06939 212705.88481 197666.99632 161472.44744 198621.52409 178531.00768 145337.50197 162568.49362 202715.19447 265068.92953 317931.74829 371636.93082 315366.10785 362655.61239 372377.01905 406178.89715 379361.31419 387266.70853 402889.9702 394076.1314 431651.32652 450305.84474 494527.84261 533096.74705 697282.66543 727749.53801 634710.80107 658793.36759 564550 560650 468652 474087 337374 269638 264941 198806 182767 94289.62 36275 22452 17156.12 1632.674 4688.229 682.7933 30332.5 16528.8 15996.71 4536.571 10234.2 4470.229 42003.67 93413.09 115521 101809 87568.58 74205.4 167795 312714 369138 325660 332539 367074 420947 526264 469985 443479 452049 582795 480918 400248 522556 462423 439523 504660 518066 315823 342167 229941 131 132 133 134 135 136 137 138 139 140 141 142 143 144 145 146 147 148 149 150 151 152 153 154 155 156 157 158 159 160 161 162 163 164 165 166 167 168 169 170 171 172 173 174 175 176 177 178 179 180 10229.22511338 10251.39368886 10279.63774741 10346.68880124 10483.46002408 10598.60153222 10685.39899907 10800.28407115 10911.53833123 10982.22987915 11111.61815782 11226.21923972 11353.43104756 11448.68818194 11477.03671331 11529.19915201 11598.95363857 11673.00585459 11749.68762076 11845.74142675 11896.78674855 11973.12677936 12052.97605847 12134.90273178 12230.11754619 12278.36264973 12369.54462085 12398.68014174 12477.4599506 12553.1329422 12629.6753594 12702.79136412 12809.12235991 12898.0486854 12986.6797252 13049.85460131 13134.02787971 13155.33593058 13198.81979657 13177.92423214 13075.91103411 13091.36644608 13138.26792753 13218.9971644 13263.11211765 13361.84631279 13341.91555509 13425.86506975 13538.07776856 13650.48046464 -807.66011338 -717.04768886 -641.90574741 -613.70980124 -648.95002408 -747.62853222 -777.05199907 -844.64307115 -820.48933123 -793.27587915 -784.59915782 -838.83723972 -847.05904756 -905.04418194 -901.93671331 -864.13915201 -861.47563857 -855.10985459 -751.36562076 -748.76542675 -684.58174855 -688.53977936 -580.83905847 -519.26673177 -514.72454619 -445.87664973 -427.51262085 -307.06614174 -190.4599506 -149.8399422 -130.9813594 -40.406364119 68.4706400934 26.1303146001 174.162274805 128.564398689 126.478120288 67.3540694175 101.164203427 66.8597678624 204.947965892 305.635553921 339.884072473 319.074835598 295.91988235 272.406687207 409.627444909 559.20793025 607.567231443 570.666535357 652314.85874 514157.3881 412042.98856 376639.72013 421136.13376 558948.42219 603809.80926 713421.91763 673202.74266 629286.62045 615595.83846 703647.91474 717509.03006 819104.97126 813489.83482 746736.47403 742140.27586 731212.86341 564550.29606 560649.6643 468652.17044 474087.02777 337374.01185 269637.93873 264941.35845 198805.98678 182767.04099 94289.615401 36274.992782 22452.00828 17156.116509 1632.6742613 4688.2285548 682.7933411 30332.497965 16528.80461 15996.714912 4536.5706671 10234.196055 4470.2285586 42003.668723 93413.09182 115521.18272 101808.75071 87568.57677 74205.403235 167794.64362 312713.50925 369137.94072 325660.29458 159675 247951 349327 371858 550065 541954 652214 685374 636112 291075 275111 135996 149793 120038 115723 52700 7972.472 20822.26 7211.738 5172.316 3230.343 22582.59 15758.44 101.8979 2023.778 3077.851 6234.096 74.07096 2837.382 2962.81 8295.017 7267.959 21603.88 38403.69 35808.56 28664.26 47500.35 54519.5 23338.11 181 182 183 184 185 186 187 188 189 190 191 192 193 194 195 196 197 198 199 200 201 202 203 204 205 206 207 208 209 210 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 220 221 222 223 224 225 226 227 228 229 230 13752.86136567 13859.11759434 13961.07152965 14046.16130821 14154.22726898 14306.11166851 14394.25116072 14503.61590734 14609.22225718 14693.7167442 14734.04789924 14813.31092561 14919.12004176 14956.34388938 15042.19897445 15109.40206079 15167.35732421 15187.50991965 14928.43323151 14657.99341254 14543.07849841 14579.42020384 14614.3945188 14678.9697456 14749.67945202 14844.09360316 14953.05897746 15173.23997425 15300.58619014 15451.9235148 15617.07627155 15782.95314324 15858.62635498 15991.10219988 16149.84930168 16238.66481253 16318.25804833 16459.76618606 16606.81289152 16771.97105906 16955.64360827 17043.66644907 17158.93141862 17199.26561241 17318.07270524 17447.40844893 17509.49208463 17577.80570246 17713.56298621 17791.95732667 576.661634327 605.866405659 648.804470347 725.440691794 685.554731016 665.942331492 672.345839277 763.410092659 693.482742824 632.651255802 722.880100761 680.017074386 662.96495824 710.394110618 719.76802555 561.980939212 584.950675785 479.522080354 399.593768494 497.946587465 591.038501593 609.80179616 741.663481201 736.175254404 807.597547978 827.873396839 797.566022537 539.514025752 524.509809858 368.776485205 387.03072845 346.464856755 340.180645023 229.564800117 89.288698316 144.299187466 84.9219516713 71.9188139375 56.83610848 -150.27505906 -125.53260827 -10.094449069 -44.98641862 55.4783875939 78.9562947571 -8.6064489287 -53.267084625 -54.431702464 -91.076986211 -85.252326666 332538.6405 367074.10151 420947.24074 526264.19731 469985.28922 443479.18887 452048.92759 582794.96957 480918.31459 400247.61147 522555.64008 462423.22146 439522.53585 504659.7924 518066.0106 315822.57604 342167.2931 229941.42555 159675.17982 247950.80397 349326.51037 371858.2306 550064.71935 541954.0052 652213.7995 685374.36119 636111.5603 291075.38398 275110.54064 135996.09604 149792.78476 120037.89697 115722.87125 52699.997453 7972.471647 20822.255503 7211.7378757 5172.3157982 3230.3432271 22582.593376 15758.435739 101.89790201 2023.7778603 3077.85149 6234.0964818 74.070963163 2837.3823045 2962.8102331 8295.0174173 7267.959202 231 232 233 234 235 236 237 17931.1675744 18058.99160334 18184.381487 18290.14821536 18441.70374201 18557.45710972 18664.34415756 -146.9825744 -195.96860334 -189.231487 -169.30521536 -217.94574201 -233.49410972 -152.76815756 21603.877179 38403.693497 35808.555672 28664.25595 47500.346459 54519.499273 23338.109965 Regression Statistics Multiple R R Square Adjusted R Square Standard Error Observations AN Significance F 1.70475E-232 Lower 95% 2836.2136565 21.073131062 -232.291106 25.366197921 0.2598547438 Regression Residual Total Upper 95% 3322.0107137 35.240779258 -155.9204339 39.436015704 0.5896690093 Lower 95.0% 2836.2136565 21.073131062 -232.291106 25.366197921 0.2598547438 Upper 95.0% 3322.0107137 35.240779258 -155.9204339 39.436015704 0.5896690093 UR Residual Plot Residuals 1000 500 0 -500.000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 -1000 UR CPI Residual Plot Residuals 1000 500 0 0.000 50.000 100.000150.000200.000250.000300.000 -500 -1000 CPI M1 Residual Plot Residuals 1000 500 0 0.000 -500 1000.000 2000.000 3000.000 -1000 M1 TREND Residual Plot ls 1000 500 4000.000 Intercept TREND UR CPI M1 Observation 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 TREND Residual Plot Residuals 1000 500 0 -500 0 50 100 -1000 TREND 150 200 250 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 100 101 102 103 104 105 106 107 108 109 110 111 112 113 114 115 116 117 118 119 120 121 122 123 124 125 126 127 128 129 130 131 132 133 134 135 136 137 138 139 140 141 142 143 144 145 146 147 148 149 150 151 152 153 154 155 156 157 158 159 160 161 162 163 164 165 166 167 168 169 170 171 172 173 174 175 176 177 178 179 180 181 182 183 184 185 186 187 188 189 190 191 192 193 194 195 196 197 198 199 200 201 202 203 204 205 206 207 208 209 210 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 220 221 222 223 224 225 226 227 228 229 230 231 232 233 234 235 236 237 Regression Statistics 0.559553315293 0.313099912656 0.301256807702 182574.2855637 237 ChiSQ: 74.2046793 P-Value: 2.935015E-15 Heterscedasticity when BPG test ANOVA df SS MS F 4 3524979368946 881244842236 26.43731639 232 7733341781788 33333369749 236 1.1258321E+13 Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value -73799.19952492 49319.8611537 -1.496338347 0.135924635 783.8733355235 1438.3505039 0.5449807494 0.586290259 11047.1977886 7753.42478158 1.4248152397 0.155554436 3027.503867062 1428.4184092 2.119479732 0.03511255 -266.6942064744 33.4839282 -7.964842263 7.389744E-14 RESIDUAL OUTPUT Predicted RGDP Residuals e2 Yhat 3118.059061298 74.320938702 5523.6019295 3118.059061 3119.149982694 75.5030173057 5700.7056223 3119.149983 3087.791178357 115.967821643 13448.535657 3087.791178 3207.239109664 68.5178903362 4694.7012961 3207.23911 3221.5822548 36.5057451997 1332.6694326 3221.582255 3192.599687855 81.4293121452 6630.7328764 3192.599688 3084.540304537 147.468695463 21747.016141 3084.540305 3011.415582101 242.410417899 58762.810706 3011.415582 3000.866292804 308.192707196 94982.744769 3000.866293 3078.448691649 294.132308351 86513.814816 3078.448692 3218.555154862 220.165845138 48472.999365 3218.555155 3360.881953219 139.172046781 19368.858605 3360.881953 3412.532213962 119.150786038 14196.909813 3412.532214 3436.970437796 138.099562204 19071.489081 3436.970438 3474.313475956 112.513524044 12659.293093 3474.313476 3460.962493325 165.018506675 27231.107545 3460.962493 3498.006211435 168.662788565 28447.136247 3498.006211 3578.154021071 169.123978929 28602.920249 3578.154021 3596.693667886 175.151332114 30677.989141 3596.693668 3648.790102116 202.575897884 41036.994404 3648.790102 3730.78173061 162.51426939 26410.887755 3730.781731 3801.103980662 153.017019338 23414.208207 3801.103981 3841.253128009 125.081871991 15645.474701 3841.253128 3885.992289078 176.318710922 31088.287821 3885.992289 3966.317256345 147.311743655 21700.749819 3966.317256 4056.522934635 148.563065365 22070.984391 4056.522935 4143.115898553 158.857101447 25235.57868 4143.115899 4227.408337836 179.284662164 32142.990087 4227.408338 4272.210536411 149.536463589 22361.153943 4272.210536 4322.153646476 137.041353524 18780.332576 4322.153646 Significance F 4.483232E-18 Lower 95% -170971.2583 -2050.025146 -4228.924865 213.17401482 -332.665646 SqYhat 9722292.3097 9729096.6145 9534454.3611 10286382.707 10378592.224 10192692.767 9514388.8903 9068623.8081 9005198.5073 9476846.3471 10359097.285 11295527.503 11645376.111 11812765.79 12070854.129 11978261.38 12236047.455 12803186.199 12936205.341 13313669.209 13918732.321 14448391.472 14755225.593 15100936.071 15731672.578 16455378.319 17165409.349 17870981.255 18251782.867 18681012.144 Upper 95% 23372.859208 3617.7718173 26323.320442 5841.8337193 -200.7227669 4372.103662389 4377.802035644 4413.45864067 4460.528569689 4482.401321854 4554.729036117 4627.382401152 4678.687525371 4748.521411903 4792.219671978 4832.946681002 4851.805705927 4899.017066013 4831.071540676 4760.696925696 4725.333031388 4644.046703495 4665.108434622 4713.569892577 4730.434774993 4788.614639134 4861.820194609 4913.171924715 4980.105510066 5063.630193911 5199.595879192 5258.173957383 5341.538609282 5414.274566625 5417.367394841 5474.68727199 5464.018509247 5355.609139342 5096.619790565 5030.603825875 5173.187190112 5266.917420041 5427.372345714 5506.190466596 5532.431741855 5583.384823701 5700.965259819 5836.366521789 5938.939555002 6044.224852443 6174.589927204 6317.430074424 6390.224592542 6496.294363195 6588.127201651 123.673337611 157.788964356 124.91135933 120.780430311 133.451678146 155.263963883 161.305598848 147.111474629 96.2575880974 128.385328022 102.617318998 116.358294073 44.9179339872 105.522459324 182.903074304 263.825968612 291.646296505 404.637565378 383.609107423 408.693225007 362.630360866 384.153805391 451.873075285 435.606489934 442.765806089 443.073120808 445.924042617 332.561390718 313.685433375 261.345605159 217.52272801 174.392490753 260.916860658 451.536209435 557.196174125 510.256809888 493.054579959 462.127654286 426.520533404 432.833258145 425.119176299 378.528740181 361.319478211 370.574444998 265.427147557 155.201072796 256.959925576 250.272407458 233.460636806 153.726798349 15295.094436 24897.357273 15602.84769 14587.912346 17809.3504 24106.898481 26019.49622 21641.785967 9265.5232663 16482.792451 10530.314158 13539.252599 2017.6207937 11134.989422 33453.53459 69604.141714 85057.562265 163731.55932 147155.9473 167030.15217 131500.77862 147574.1462 204189.27617 189753.01407 196041.55904 196313.79038 198848.25178 110597.0786 98398.551112 68301.525336 47316.137201 30412.740831 68077.608175 203884.94843 310467.57646 260362.01204 243102.81882 213561.96886 181919.76542 187344.62936 180726.31406 143284.00714 130551.76533 137325.41929 70451.57066 24087.372997 66028.403352 62636.277935 54503.868938 23631.928531 4372.103662 4377.802036 4413.458641 4460.52857 4482.401322 4554.729036 4627.382401 4678.687525 4748.521412 4792.219672 4832.946681 4851.805706 4899.017066 4831.071541 4760.696926 4725.333031 4644.046703 4665.108435 4713.569893 4730.434775 4788.614639 4861.820195 4913.171925 4980.10551 5063.630194 5199.595879 5258.173957 5341.538609 5414.274567 5417.367395 5474.687272 5464.018509 5355.609139 5096.619791 5030.603826 5173.18719 5266.91742 5427.372346 5506.190467 5532.431742 5583.384824 5700.96526 5836.366522 5938.939555 6044.224852 6174.589927 6317.430074 6390.224593 6496.294363 6588.127202 19115290.435 19165150.663 19478617.173 19896315.121 20091921.61 20745556.592 21412667.886 21890116.96 22548455.599 22965369.384 23357373.621 23540018.608 24000368.213 23339252.231 22664235.218 22328772.258 21567169.784 21763236.707 22217741.132 22377013.16 22930830.162 23637295.605 24139258.362 24801450.891 25640350.741 27035797.307 27648393.366 28532034.714 29314369.083 29347869.491 29972200.726 29855498.269 28682549.253 25975533.29 25306974.853 26761865.704 27740419.11 29456370.579 30318133.454 30607800.978 31174186.09 32501004.894 34063174.177 35271003.038 36532654.067 38125560.769 39909922.745 40834970.343 42201840.453 43403420.025 6724.165172226 6797.934282593 6883.430100384 6947.047627064 6860.097095291 6878.939792114 7038.73680472 7139.499012242 7238.087299699 7347.742577412 7264.955146239 7208.024609087 7165.981836998 7159.681753574 7056.461124557 7150.857439663 7267.412582415 7480.504840345 7706.56977387 7914.310066624 8061.850877476 8121.023622294 8206.742596716 8285.447482233 8337.733566709 8415.510344107 8518.908747782 8571.132298011 8566.534559517 8666.83683434 8758.260041474 8884.778452976 9024.087367984 9143.255316938 9241.736668102 9327.214944127 9449.868022552 9528.756659097 9625.836139842 9723.815567474 9805.713142186 9866.677833833 9914.129770557 10029.33731774 10095.47773627 10128.63374582 10147.97152948 10122.44937469 10138.32939232 10200.50586981 24.8978277741 1.26571740742 -67.227100384 -109.40662706 -163.34409529 -190.14579211 -225.20180472 -192.45701224 -342.5282997 -369.60757741 -362.85014624 -413.14660909 -340.105837 -359.90075357 -253.96412456 -258.71343966 -218.43058242 -290.60884034 -366.67677387 -430.93906662 -449.18287748 -434.96462229 -457.59159672 -461.20048223 -444.59756671 -401.83634411 -445.66974778 -422.52929801 -381.23155952 -403.19783434 -450.23904147 -514.84845298 -563.85436798 -609.62031694 -561.5746681 -602.20894413 -610.22702255 -637.3216591 -615.92313984 -622.30756747 -634.73614219 -627.75483383 -657.00177056 -671.04831774 -703.22673627 -730.13474582 -835.03452948 -853.08237469 -796.68739232 -811.66086981 619.90182787 1.6020405554 4519.4830261 11969.810046 26681.293466 36155.422259 50715.852849 37039.701561 117325.63609 136609.76128 131660.22863 170690.1206 115671.98036 129528.55242 64497.776562 66932.643862 47711.919334 84453.498086 134451.8565 185708.47914 201765.25742 189194.22265 209390.06939 212705.88481 197666.99632 161472.44744 198621.52409 178531.00768 145337.50197 162568.49362 202715.19447 265068.92953 317931.74829 371636.93082 315366.10785 362655.61239 372377.01905 406178.89715 379361.31419 387266.70853 402889.9702 394076.1314 431651.32652 450305.84474 494527.84261 533096.74705 697282.66543 727749.53801 634710.80107 658793.36759 6724.165172 6797.934283 6883.4301 6947.047627 6860.097095 6878.939792 7038.736805 7139.499012 7238.0873 7347.742577 7264.955146 7208.024609 7165.981837 7159.681754 7056.461125 7150.85744 7267.412582 7480.50484 7706.569774 7914.310067 8061.850877 8121.023622 8206.742597 8285.447482 8337.733567 8415.510344 8518.908748 8571.132298 8566.53456 8666.836834 8758.260041 8884.778453 9024.087368 9143.255317 9241.736668 9327.214944 9449.868023 9528.756659 9625.83614 9723.815567 9805.713142 9866.677834 9914.129771 10029.33732 10095.47774 10128.63375 10147.97153 10122.44937 10138.32939 10200.50587 45214397.263 46211910.51 47381609.947 48261470.733 47060932.157 47319812.664 49543815.806 50972446.146 52389907.758 53989320.984 52779573.277 51955618.765 51351295.688 51261042.812 49793643.602 51134762.122 52815285.643 55957952.666 59391217.68 62636303.831 64993439.571 65951024.674 67350624.049 68648639.981 69517801.029 70820814.352 72571806.253 73464308.87 73385514.359 75114060.713 76707118.954 78939288.158 81434152.825 83599117.791 85409696.643 86996938.614 89300005.644 90797203.468 92656721.391 94552589.19 96152010.227 97351331.477 98289969.107 100587607 101918670.72 102589221.56 102981326.16 102463981.34 102785722.87 104050320 10229.22511338 10251.39368886 10279.63774741 10346.68880124 10483.46002408 10598.60153222 10685.39899907 10800.28407115 10911.53833123 10982.22987915 11111.61815782 11226.21923972 11353.43104756 11448.68818194 11477.03671331 11529.19915201 11598.95363857 11673.00585459 11749.68762076 11845.74142675 11896.78674855 11973.12677936 12052.97605847 12134.90273178 12230.11754619 12278.36264973 12369.54462085 12398.68014174 12477.4599506 12553.1329422 12629.6753594 12702.79136412 12809.12235991 12898.0486854 12986.6797252 13049.85460131 13134.02787971 13155.33593058 13198.81979657 13177.92423214 13075.91103411 13091.36644608 13138.26792753 13218.9971644 13263.11211765 13361.84631279 13341.91555509 13425.86506975 13538.07776856 13650.48046464 -807.66011338 -717.04768886 -641.90574741 -613.70980124 -648.95002408 -747.62853222 -777.05199907 -844.64307115 -820.48933123 -793.27587915 -784.59915782 -838.83723972 -847.05904756 -905.04418194 -901.93671331 -864.13915201 -861.47563857 -855.10985459 -751.36562076 -748.76542675 -684.58174855 -688.53977936 -580.83905847 -519.26673177 -514.72454619 -445.87664973 -427.51262085 -307.06614174 -190.4599506 -149.8399422 -130.9813594 -40.406364119 68.4706400934 26.1303146001 174.162274805 128.564398689 126.478120288 67.3540694175 101.164203427 66.8597678624 204.947965892 305.635553921 339.884072473 319.074835598 295.91988235 272.406687207 409.627444909 559.20793025 607.567231443 570.666535357 652314.85874 514157.3881 412042.98856 376639.72013 421136.13376 558948.42219 603809.80926 713421.91763 673202.74266 629286.62045 615595.83846 703647.91474 717509.03006 819104.97126 813489.83482 746736.47403 742140.27586 731212.86341 564550.29606 560649.6643 468652.17044 474087.02777 337374.01185 269637.93873 264941.35845 198805.98678 182767.04099 94289.615401 36274.992782 22452.00828 17156.116509 1632.6742613 4688.2285548 682.7933411 30332.497965 16528.80461 15996.714912 4536.5706671 10234.196055 4470.2285586 42003.668723 93413.09182 115521.18272 101808.75071 87568.57677 74205.403235 167794.64362 312713.50925 369137.94072 325660.29458 10229.22511 10251.39369 10279.63775 10346.6888 10483.46002 10598.60153 10685.399 10800.28407 10911.53833 10982.22988 11111.61816 11226.21924 11353.43105 11448.68818 11477.03671 11529.19915 11598.95364 11673.00585 11749.68762 11845.74143 11896.78675 11973.12678 12052.97606 12134.90273 12230.11755 12278.36265 12369.54462 12398.68014 12477.45995 12553.13294 12629.67536 12702.79136 12809.12236 12898.04869 12986.67973 13049.8546 13134.02788 13155.33593 13198.8198 13177.92423 13075.91103 13091.36645 13138.26793 13218.99716 13263.11212 13361.84631 13341.91556 13425.86507 13538.07777 13650.48046 104637046.42 105091072.56 105670952.22 107053969.15 109902934.08 112330354.44 114177751.77 116646136 119061668.75 120609373.12 123468058.09 126027998.42 128900396.55 131072461.09 131722371.72 132922433.09 134535725.51 136259065.68 138055159.19 140321589.95 141533534.94 143355764.87 145274231.87 147255864.31 149575775.19 150758189.36 153005634.13 153727269.26 155687006.82 157581146.66 159508699.68 161360908.44 164073615.63 166359659.89 168653850.28 170298705.12 172502688.35 173062863.45 174208844 173657687.07 170979449.37 171383875.43 172614084.14 174741886 175910143 178538936.89 178006710.68 180253852.87 183279549.67 186335616.92 13752.86136567 13859.11759434 13961.07152965 14046.16130821 14154.22726898 14306.11166851 14394.25116072 14503.61590734 14609.22225718 14693.7167442 14734.04789924 14813.31092561 14919.12004176 14956.34388938 15042.19897445 15109.40206079 15167.35732421 15187.50991965 14928.43323151 14657.99341254 14543.07849841 14579.42020384 14614.3945188 14678.9697456 14749.67945202 14844.09360316 14953.05897746 15173.23997425 15300.58619014 15451.9235148 15617.07627155 15782.95314324 15858.62635498 15991.10219988 16149.84930168 16238.66481253 16318.25804833 16459.76618606 16606.81289152 16771.97105906 16955.64360827 17043.66644907 17158.93141862 17199.26561241 17318.07270524 17447.40844893 17509.49208463 17577.80570246 17713.56298621 17791.95732667 576.661634327 605.866405659 648.804470347 725.440691794 685.554731016 665.942331492 672.345839277 763.410092659 693.482742824 632.651255802 722.880100761 680.017074386 662.96495824 710.394110618 719.76802555 561.980939212 584.950675785 479.522080354 399.593768494 497.946587465 591.038501593 609.80179616 741.663481201 736.175254404 807.597547978 827.873396839 797.566022537 539.514025752 524.509809858 368.776485205 387.03072845 346.464856755 340.180645023 229.564800117 89.288698316 144.299187466 84.9219516713 71.9188139375 56.83610848 -150.27505906 -125.53260827 -10.094449069 -44.98641862 55.4783875939 78.9562947571 -8.6064489287 -53.267084625 -54.431702464 -91.076986211 -85.252326666 332538.6405 367074.10151 420947.24074 526264.19731 469985.28922 443479.18887 452048.92759 582794.96957 480918.31459 400247.61147 522555.64008 462423.22146 439522.53585 504659.7924 518066.0106 315822.57604 342167.2931 229941.42555 159675.17982 247950.80397 349326.51037 371858.2306 550064.71935 541954.0052 652213.7995 685374.36119 636111.5603 291075.38398 275110.54064 135996.09604 149792.78476 120037.89697 115722.87125 52699.997453 7972.471647 20822.255503 7211.7378757 5172.3157982 3230.3432271 22582.593376 15758.435739 101.89790201 2023.7778603 3077.85149 6234.0964818 74.070963163 2837.3823045 2962.8102331 8295.0174173 7267.959202 13752.86137 13859.11759 13961.07153 14046.16131 14154.22727 14306.11167 14394.25116 14503.61591 14609.22226 14693.71674 14734.0479 14813.31093 14919.12004 14956.34389 15042.19897 15109.40206 15167.35732 15187.50992 14928.43323 14657.99341 14543.0785 14579.4202 14614.39452 14678.96975 14749.67945 14844.0936 14953.05898 15173.23997 15300.58619 15451.92351 15617.07627 15782.95314 15858.62635 15991.1022 16149.8493 16238.66481 16318.25805 16459.76619 16606.81289 16771.97106 16955.64361 17043.66645 17158.93142 17199.26561 17318.07271 17447.40845 17509.49208 17577.8057 17713.56299 17791.95733 189141195.74 192075140.49 194911518.26 197294647.5 200342149.58 204664831.07 207194466.48 210354874.39 213429375 215905311.76 217092167.5 219434180.58 222580142.82 223692222.54 226267750 228294030.63 230048728.2 230660457.56 222858118.75 214856770.88 211501132.21 212559493.48 213580527.15 215472152.79 217553043.94 220347114.9 223593972.78 230227211.32 234107937.76 238761940.31 243893071.27 249101609.92 251496029.87 255715349.57 260817632.47 263694234.89 266285545.73 270923902.9 275786234.41 281299013.21 287493850.17 290486566 294428927.43 295814737.61 299915642.22 304412061.58 306582313.06 308979253.31 313770313.67 316553745.51 17931.1675744 18058.99160334 18184.381487 18290.14821536 18441.70374201 18557.45710972 18664.34415756 -146.9825744 -195.96860334 -189.231487 -169.30521536 -217.94574201 -233.49410972 -152.76815756 21603.877179 38403.693497 35808.555672 28664.25595 47500.346459 54519.499273 23338.109965 17931.16757 18058.9916 18184.38149 18290.14822 18441.70374 18557.45711 18664.34416 321526770.58 326127177.73 330671730.06 334529521.74 340096436.91 344379214.38 348357742.83 Regression Statistics Multiple R 0.6146813887 R Square 0.3778332096 Adjusted R Square 0.3725155447 Standard Error 173014.41983 Observations 237 ANOVA Regression Residual Total Lower 95.0% -170971.2583 -2050.025146 -4228.924865 213.17401482 -332.665646 Upper 95.0% 23372.859208 3617.7718173 26323.320442 5841.8337193 -200.7227669 Intercept Yhat SqYhat df 2 234 236 Coefficients -474041.8703 149.64740503 -0.006722982 ChiSq: 89.54647066 P-Value: 3.591129E-20 Heterscedasticity when Whites Test Reject Null Hypothesis. We have heterscedasticity ANOVA SS MS 4253767614586 2.13E+12 7004553536148 2.99E+10 11258321150734 Standard Error t Stat 58015.73492527 -8.170919 13.07328647083 11.44681 0.000633179916 -10.61781 F Significance F 71.05246728 7.7107857E-25 P-value Lower 95% Upper 95% 1.920112E-14 -588341.78175 -359741.9588 2.197936E-24 123.89102207 175.403788 9.445157E-22 -0.0079704433 -0.00547552 Lower 95.0% -588341.7817 123.89102207 -0.007970443 Upper 95.0% -359741.9588 175.403788 -0.00547552