Using the accompanying table, determine the most appropriate forecasting technique for the accompanying data about the Dow Jones Industrial Average yearly closing value and implement the model.

Year	Close
1983	1258.64
1984	1211.57
1985	1546.67
1986	1895.95
1987	1938.83
1988	2168.57
1989	2753.20
1990	2633.66
1991	3168.83
1992	3301.11
1993	3754.09
1994	3834.44
1995	5117.12
1996	6448.27
1997	7908.25
1998	9181.43
1999	11497.12
2000	10786.85
2001	10021.50
2002	8341.63
2003	10453.92
2004	10783.01
2005	10717.50
2006	12463.15
2007	13264.82
2008	8776.39
2009	10428.05
2010	11557.50
2011	12217.60
2012	13104.10

Question content area bottom

Part 1

What is the most appropriate forecasting technique?

A.

Holt-Winters multiplicative seasonality models with trend

B.

Double exponential smoothing

Your answer is correct.

C.

Holt-Winters multiplicative seasonality models without trend or multiple regression

D.

Simple exponential smoothing

E.

Simple moving average

F.

Holt-Winters additive seasonality models with trend

G.

Holt-Winters additive seasonality models without trend or multiple regression

Part 2

Use the model forecast the closing value for

2017.

Use

=0.8,

=0.3,

and

=0.4,

as needed.

F2017=_________

(Round to two decimal places as needed.)

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