Using the factory energy cost data in the table below, find the best moving average and exponential smoothing models.

Year	Energy Costs
1	15,363.74
2	15,417.40
3	15,910.57
4	16,608.50
5	16,919.63
6	16,841.11
7	16,806.35
8	17,100.68
9	16,857.32
10	17,839.68
11	18,181.64
12	18,783.02
13	18,870.89
14	18,908.19
15	19,323.47

Find the best number of years to use in a moving average forecast based on MSE. Do not round intermediate calculations. Round your answers to two decimal places.

Number of years		MSE
2
3
4

The -Select-2-year moving average3-year moving average4-year moving averageItem 4 model is better.

Find the best single exponential smoothing model by evaluating the MSE from 0.1 to 0.9, in increments of 0.1. Do not round intermediate calculations. Round your answers to two decimal places.

Alpha	MSE
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9

The model based on a smoothing constant of -Select-0.10.20.30.40.50.60.70.80.9Item 14 is the best.

Compare the forecasting ability of the best moving average and single exponential smoothing models with a regression model. The regression equation is Y = 15,087.00 + 278.56(Year) with MSE = 94,046.32. Which model would you choose based on MSE?

The -Select-single exponential smoothingregressionmoving averageItem 15 model should be chosen.