Question: Using the multiplicative decomposition method calculate forecasts for each quarter of Year 5 I am getting stuck on step 4 to then use the multiplicative

Using the multiplicative decomposition method calculate forecasts for each quarter of Year 5 I am getting stuck on step 4 to then use the multiplicative decomposition method calculate forecasts for each quarter of Year 5 / plot them

Using the multiplicative decomposition method

Sales of space heaters over 4 years Step 3: Project the trend into the future periods Project the tren Trend Forecast Slope: 36.90436.904 quarter +589.38 \begin{tabular}{|c|c|r|r|r|} \hline Year & Quarter & Sales & Trend Forecast & Period \\ \hline 1 & 1 & 810 & 626.284 & 1 \\ \hline 1 & 2 & 481 & 663.188 & 2 \\ \hline 1 & 3 & 732 & 700.092 & 3 \\ \hline 1 & 4 & 436 & 736.996 & 4 \\ \hline 2 & 1 & 1025 & 773.9 & 5 \\ \hline 2 & 2 & 781 & 810.804 & 6 \\ \hline 2 & 3 & 877 & 847.708 & 7 \\ \hline 2 & 4 & 545 & 884.612 & 8 \\ \hline 3 & 1 & 1217 & 921.516 & 9 \\ \hline 3 & 2 & 940 & 958.42 & 10 \\ \hline 3 & 3 & 1190 & 995.324 & 11 \\ \hline 3 & 4 & 727 & 1032.228 & 12 \\ \hline 4 & 1 & 1399 & 4759.532 & 13 \\ \hline 4 & 2 & 1200 & 1106.036 & 14 \\ \hline 4 & 3 & 1236 & 1142.94 & 15 \\ \hline 4 & 4 & 853 & 1179.844 & 16 \\ \hline \end{tabular} Step 4 Final Forecasts Using the multiplicative decomposition method calculate forecasts for each quarter of Year 5 Adjust trend forecast with seasonality index \begin{tabular}{|c|r|r|r|r|r|r|} \hline Quarter & \multicolumn{1}{|c|}{ Year 1 } & \multicolumn{1}{|c|}{ Year 2 } & Year 3 & \multicolumn{1}{|c|}{ Year 4 } & Monthly Average & Seasonality Index \\ \hline 1 & 810 & 1025 & 1217 & 1399 & 1112.75 & 1.232196 \\ \hline 2 & 481 & 781 & 940 & 1200 & 850.5 & 0.94179528 \\ \hline 3 & 732 & 877 & 1190 & 1236 & 1008.75 & 1.117032321 \\ \hline 4 & 436 & 545 & 727 & 853 & 640.25 & 0.7089764 \\ \hline & & & & & 4 \\ \hline \end{tabular} \begin{tabular}{|c|c|r|r|r|r|r} \hline Year & Quarter & \multicolumn{1}{|l|}{ Sales } & \multicolumn{2}{l|}{ Trend*seasonality } \\ \hline 1 & 1 & Trend Forecast & Seasonality Index & \multicolumn{1}{l|}{ Final Forecast } \\ \hline 1 & 2 & 810 & 626.284 & 1.232196 & 771.7046397 \\ \hline 1 & 3 & 481 & 663.188 & 0.94179528 & 624.5873282 \\ \hline 1 & 4 & 732 & 700.092 & 1.117032321 & 782.0253917 \\ \hline 2 & 1 & 436 & 736.996 & 0.7089764 & 522.5127709 \\ \hline 2 & 2 & 1025 & 773.9 & 1.232196 & 953.5964844 \\ \hline 2 & 3 & 781 & 810.804 & 0.94179528 & 763.6113802 \\ \hline 2 & 4 & 877 & 847.708 & 1.117032321 & 946.9172348 \\ \hline 3 & 1 & 545 & 884.612 & 0.7089764 & 627.1690312 \\ \hline 3 & 2 & 1217 & 921.561 & 1.232196 & 1135.543778 \\ \hline 3 & 3 & 940 & 958.42 & 0.94179528 & 902.6354323 \\ \hline 3 & 4 & 1190 & 995.324 & 1.117032321 & 1111.809078 \\ \hline 4 & 1 & 727 & 1032.228 & 0.7089764 & 731.8252914 \\ \hline 4 & 2 & 1399 & 1069.132 & 1.232196 & 1317.380174 \\ \hline 4 & 3 & 1200 & 1106.036 & 0.94179528 & 1041.659484 \\ \hline 4 & 4 & 1236 & 1142.94 & 1.117032321 & 1276.700921 \\ \hline \end{tabular}

Step by Step Solution

There are 3 Steps involved in it

1 Expert Approved Answer

Step: 1 Unlock blur-text-image

Question Has Been Solved by an Expert!

Get step-by-step solutions from verified subject matter experts

Step: 2 Unlock

Step: 3 Unlock

Students Have Also Explored These Related General Management Questions!

Please show all working out by hand and NOT excel. thank you The data in the following table give quarterly sales yt(t=1,2,,16) of a product for four consecutive years. Assume that the multiplicative...

How accurate was the demand forecast in Q 1 of 2 0 0 5 for PVB and Fire valves family of products? What was the forecast error? Using the data for the four quarters from 2 0 0 1 to 2 0 0 5 , ( use...

Read the Wilkins, A Turn company case from the Harvard course pack and answer the following questions. Be as detailed as you can. How accurate was the demand forecast in Q 1 of 2 0 0 5 for PVB and...

How accurate was the demand forecast in Q 1 of 2 0 0 5 for PVB and Fire valves family of products? What was the forecast error? Using the data for the four quarters from 2 0 0 1 to 2 0 0 5 , ( use...

Please may I get help with Question 4 QUESTION 4 [66] Consider the sales data presented in the previous question and assume that the initial smoothed level corresponds to the first observation. (4.1]...

The data in Table 7.5 (page 343) give quarterly sales of the popular game Oligopoly at the J-Mart variety store. Consider using the multiplicative decomposition method to forecast Oligopoly sales for...

Car sales at a dealership are shown quarterly as follows: Period Year Quarter Sales 1 1 98 2 1 II 106 3 1 109 4 1 IV 133 5 2 130 6 2 II 116 7 2 III 133 8 2 IV 116 3 138 10 3 II 130 11 3 147 12 3 141...

The \"oligopoly.dta\" attached give quarterly sales of the popular game Oligopoly at the J-Mart variety store. Please use the multiplicative decomposition method to forecast Oligopoly sales for year...

Trevor Harty, an avid mountain biker, always wanted to start a business selling top-of-the-line mountain bikes and other outdoor supplies. A little over 6 years ago, he and a silent partner opened a...

How is cash received in person independently verified?

A target was purchased for $1,500.0m with an equity contribution of $500.0m, and by year 5 $500.0m of cash flow was used to repay debt. Assuming the sponsor sells the target for the enterprise value....

Floating - rate notes ( FRN ) Question 1 8 options: a ) experience very volatile price changes between reset dates. b ) are typically medium - term bonds with coupon payments indexed to inflation...

As the manager of Smith Construction, you need to make a decision on the number of homes to build in a new residential area where you are the only builder. Unfortunately, you must build the homes...