What is the probability that the project will be completed in 23 months c. What is the due date that yields a 95% chance of completion? Problem 3 The product design group of lyengar Electric Supplies, Inc., has determined that it needs to design a new series of switches. It must decide on one of the following three design strategies. The market forecast is for 200,000 units. The better and more sophisticated the design strategy and the more time spent on value engineering, the less will be the variable cost. The chief of engineering design, Dr. W. L. Berry, has decided that the following costs are a good estimate of the fixed and variable cost connected with each of the three strategies: Low-tech: A low-technology, low-cost process consisting of hiring several new junior engineers. The option has a fixed cost of $40,000 and variable cost probabilities of 3 for $.55 each, .4 for $ 50, and 3 for $.45 Subcontract: A medium-cost approach using a good outside design staff. The option has a feed cost of $65,000 and variable cost probabilities of 7 for $.45 each, .2 for $.40, and.1 for $.35 High-tech: A high-technology approach using the very best of the inside staff and the latest CAD technology. The option has a fixed cost of $75,000 and variable cost probabilities of 9 for $.40 each, 1 for $.35 Design a decision tree regarding these three options and determine the best decision using the expected monetary value (EMV) criterion. (Note: you want the lowest EMV as we are dealing with cost.) Page 6 of 7