Question: Which of the following methods would be suitable for forecasting this series if applied to the raw data? Nave forecasts Moving average Simple exponential smoothing

  1. Which of the following methods would be suitable for forecasting this series if applied to the raw data?
  • Nave forecasts
  • Moving average
  • Simple exponential smoothing
  • Double exponential smoothing
  • Holt-Winter's exponential smoothing

  1. Apply a moving average with window span w = 4 to the data. Use all but the last year as the training period.
  2. Use The MA(4) model to forecast appliance sales in Q1-1990.
  3. Use the MA(4) model to forecast appliance sales in Q1-1991.
  4. Is the Q1-1990 forecast most likely to underestimate, overestimate, or accurately estimate the actual sales for Q1-1990? Explain.

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