YEAR MONTH Demand

$201516214,253732$

$201525572,458841$

$201535372,112402$

$201545902,527783$

$201555919,726379$

$201566038,768221$

$201576178,918011$

$201585663,587566$

$201595174,169976$

$2015105739,715588$

$2015116142,11791$

$2015126129,692833$

$201617198,849683$

$201626991,880164$

$201636144,184397$

$201646797,044136$

$201656523,468098$

$201667206,293785$

$201676757,385772$

$201687442,941537$

$201695934,405539$

$2016106735,488048$

$2016115815,466417$

$2016126141,305752$

$201716081,47312$

$201725837,68089$

$201736007,739817$

$201746285,854235$

$201755981,969238$

$201766193,548421$

$201776735,165806$

$201786848,691339$

$201795785,400506$

$2017106495,053335$

$2017115627,252705$

$2017125413,089273$

$201816693,365936$

$201826169,708733$

$201836027,083911$

$201845646,731438$

$201855646,945196$

$201866176,480923$

$201876200,57576$

$201885968,047886$

$201895795,458696$

$2018105724,645188$

$2018116301,737867$

$2018126437,363748$

$201816693,365936$

$201826169,708733$

$201836027,083911$

$201845646,731438$

$201855646,945196$

$201866176,480923$

$201876200,57576$

$201885968,047886$

$201895795,458696$

$2018105724,645188$

$2018116301,737867$

$2018126437,363748$

You are provided with four years of monthly demand data for a chemical component produced by a major Energy Company

By plotting the data, visually examine the time series to identify any component such as trend, seasonality and structural change.

Using the first three years, optimize SES based on MSE. Then, simulate forecasting for the last year of data by applying MA$(3)$ and SES with alpha parameter obtained earlier.

Which forecasting method do you suggest to be adopted, SES or MA$(3)?$

Can you use all formulation by using excel format