Question: You are given: (1) Each risk has at most one claim each year. (11) Type of Risk Annual Claim Prior Probability Probability I 0.7 0.1

 You are given: (1) Each risk has at most one claim

You are given: (1) Each risk has at most one claim each year. (11) Type of Risk Annual Claim Prior Probability Probability I 0.7 0.1 II 0.2 0.2 III 0.1 0.4 One randomly chosen risk has three claims during Years 1-6. Determine the posterior probability of a claim for this risk in Year 7. (A) 0.22 (B) 0.28 (C) 0.33 (D) 0.40 (E) 0.46

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