Question: You know the following statistics about re: - The probability of your house catching re on any particular day is 1 in 10,000 - Your

You know the following statistics about re: - The probability of

You know the following statistics about re: - The probability of your house catching re on any particular day is 1 in 10,000 - Your re alarm correctly detects a house re 95% of the time - The probability that your re alarm sounds on a day when there is no re (a false alarm) is 1 in 100. all Your alarm goes off. What is the probability that your house is on re? [1 mark] b) Many people given this problem estimate the probability of the house being on re as close to 95%. Provide one possible explanation for this error. [1 mark] c) Express and solve this problem using natural frequencies. [2 marks]

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