Question: You will find a spreadsheet on the bottom containing historical returns as well as other in- formation on the Fidelity Magellan Fund for the period

You will find a spreadsheet on the bottom containing historical returns as well as other in- formation on the Fidelity Magellan Fund for the period 1968-2016. To conduct a performance analysis on this fund, you will also need data on di?erent systematic risk factors. Go to Ken French's website and download monthly returns for the three Fama-French factors, the risk-free rate, and the momentum factor over the same sample period and add them to your spreadsheet. Note that the risk-free rate is included in the same file as the three Fama-French factors.

1. Perform rolling window 4-factor model regressions: In each month t (starting with the 60est month of the sample), estimate the regression using data for months t 59 to t.1(1The easiest way to solve this in Excel is the '=linest()' function. You can use linest as an array function and have it return all slope coefficients (betas) and the intercept (alpha) simultaneously. For estimating the 4-factor model, select a 5*1 block of cells, type =linest() with the appropriate inputs, then press SHIFT-CTRL-ENTER. Consulting the help page for LINEST may help. )

Produce two plots:

a) Plot the time series of rolling-window alpha estimates, along with a rolling window average of the excess return (not adjusted for risk; also using data for months t 59 to t)

b) Plot the rolling-window beta estimates for the four factors. Put all four series in one plot.

2. Interpret the development of the coecients with respect to the data provided about the fund (changes of the manager, expenses,...). Do you see any connection to the facts about the fund? Comment on the alphas. Hint: This is an open-ended question, i.e. there isn't one correct answer. It is sucient to discuss a few things you notice about the relationship between the fund's betas and the other information you know about the fund.

year month return Year(continue) Month (continue) Return (continue)
1968 1 -5.46% 1979 11 10.28% 1991 9 -0.38% 2003 7 1.32% 2015 5 1.89%
1968 2 -8.85% 1979 12 5.32% 1991 10 1.34% 2003 8 1.66% 2015 6 -0.94%
1968 3 0.44% 1980 1 8.63% 1991 11 -4.94% 2003 9 -1.48% 2015 7 2.68%
1968 4 15.73% 1980 2 0.41% 1991 12 11.80% 2003 10 4.88% 2015 8 -6.49%
1968 5 17.05% 1980 3 -13.50% 1992 1 0.04% 2003 11 0.44% 2015 9 -3.78%
1968 6 -2.23% 1980 4 8.32% 1992 2 2.03% 2003 12 5.23% 2015 10 8.82%
1968 7 -3.25% 1980 5 8.72% 1992 3 -2.71% 2004 1 1.28% 2015 11 1.31%
1968 8 5.46% 1980 6 7.83% 1992 4 1.48% 2004 2 1.42% 2015 12 -1.76%
1968 9 7.16% 1980 7 8.90% 1992 5 0.96% 2004 3 -1.26% 2016 1 -6.45%
1968 10 1.65% 1980 8 4.87% 1992 6 -1.76% 2004 4 -1.70% 2016 2 -1.67%
1968 11 12.45% 1980 9 7.82% 1992 7 2.81% 2004 5 1.05% 2016 3 6.38%
1968 12 -1.67% 1980 10 6.07% 1992 8 -2.17% 2004 6 1.46% 2016 4 1.10%
1969 1 -0.76% 1980 11 11.94% 1992 9 1.15% 2004 7 -3.91% 2016 5 1.49%
1969 2 -11.11% 1980 12 -3.00% 1992 10 0.71% 2004 8 0.24% 2016 6 -1.84%
1969 3 3.77% 1981 1 -0.93% 1992 11 2.53% 2004 9 0.95% 2016 7 3.80%
1969 4 4.08% 1981 2 2.37% 1992 12 1.94% 2004 10 1.54% 2016 8 0.51%
1969 5 3.50% 1981 3 9.59% 1993 1 2.64% 2004 11 3.31% 2016 9 0.30%
1969 6 -12.25% 1981 4 3.09% 1993 2 2.09% 2004 12 3.11% 2016 10 -1.96%
1969 7 -10.77% 1981 5 6.53% 1993 3 3.67% 2005 1 -1.88% 2016 11 2.97%
1969 8 7.11% 1981 6 -1.01% 1993 4 0.98% 2005 2 1.19% 2016 12 1.09%
1969 9 -0.60% 1981 7 -0.14% 1993 5 3.94% 2005 3 -1.99%
1969 10 6.38% 1981 8 -7.67% 1993 6 1.40% 2005 4 -2.06%
1969 11 -4.74% 1981 9 -7.00% 1993 7 1.10% 2005 5 3.61%
1969 12 -0.77% 1981 10 10.45% 1993 8 5.88% 2005 6 0.04%
1970 1 -7.97% 1981 11 4.41% 1993 9 1.08% 2005 7 4.02%
1970 2 -0.05% 1981 12 -2.54% 1993 10 0.07% 2005 8 -1.15%
1970 3 -8.85% 1982 1 -2.94% 1993 11 -3.30% 2005 9 0.70%
1970 4 -12.22% 1982 2 -2.33% 1993 12 2.99% 2005 10 -1.28%
1970 5 -4.56% 1982 3 0.00% 1994 1 3.95% 2005 11 3.35%
1970 6 -7.06% 1982 4 8.28% 1994 2 -0.73% 2005 12 1.98%
1970 7 3.63% 1982 5 -2.93% 1994 3 -4.64% 2006 1 4.77%
1970 8 4.27% 1982 6 0.37% 1994 4 1.00% 2006 2 -1.49%
1970 9 12.58% 1982 7 -0.47% 1994 5 -1.15% 2006 3 2.68%
1970 10 -2.71% 1982 8 9.24% 1994 6 -4.34% 2006 4 1.91%
1970 11 2.68% 1982 9 3.97% 1994 7 3.35% 2006 5 -5.10%
1970 12 6.25% 1982 10 14.38% 1994 8 4.74% 2006 6 -0.74%
1971 1 8.54% 1982 11 10.89% 1994 9 -2.60% 2006 7 -3.13%
1971 2 6.45% 1982 12 3.26% 1994 10 3.38% 2006 8 2.40%
1971 3 7.83% 1983 1 6.07% 1994 11 -5.48% 2006 9 1.13%
1971 4 4.02% 1983 2 6.12% 1994 12 1.41% 2006 10 2.91%
1971 5 -1.99% 1983 3 6.76% 1995 1 -1.02% 2006 11 2.60%
1971 6 -2.03% 1983 4 10.51% 1995 2 5.61% 2006 12 -0.52%
1971 7 -4.03% 1983 5 3.29% 1995 3 3.74% 2007 1 2.87%
1971 8 5.41% 1983 6 5.28% 1995 4 4.65% 2007 2 -1.65%
1971 9 0.66% 1983 7 -3.47% 1995 5 2.80% 2007 3 0.83%
1971 10 -8.60% 1983 8 -2.24% 1995 6 7.62% 2007 4 4.82%
1971 11 -2.59% 1983 9 3.35% 1995 7 7.68% 2007 5 4.05%
1971 12 19.73% 1983 10 -4.35% 1995 8 0.87% 2007 6 -0.42%
1972 1 11.21% 1983 11 4.49% 1995 9 1.85% 2007 7 -1.82%
1972 2 7.26% 1983 12 -1.56% 1995 10 -2.58% 2007 8 1.16%
1972 3 6.41% 1984 1 -0.91% 1995 11 2.22% 2007 9 6.22%
1972 4 4.19% 1984 2 -6.49% 1995 12 -1.08% 2007 10 5.32%
1972 5 2.31% 1984 3 1.79% 1996 1 1.44% 2007 11 -3.79%
1972 6 -3.17% 1984 4 -0.80% 1996 2 -0.65% 2007 12 0.35%
1972 7 -2.54% 1984 5 -6.82% 1996 3 0.99% 2008 1 -8.95%
1972 8 -3.95% 1984 6 3.23% 1996 4 0.65% 2008 2 -1.60%
1972 9 -0.34% 1984 7 -1.58% 1996 5 0.45% 2008 3 -2.19%
1972 10 -2.50% 1984 8 11.66% 1996 6 -0.09% 2008 4 6.52%
1972 11 5.42% 1984 9 0.18% 1996 7 -4.65% 2008 5 3.05%
1972 12 3.56% 1984 10 1.28% 1996 8 2.52% 2008 6 -8.38%
1973 1 -9.55% 1984 11 -1.21% 1996 9 4.01% 2008 7 -3.93%
1973 2 -10.43% 1984 12 2.90% 1996 10 2.37% 2008 8 -0.08%
1973 3 -0.91% 1985 1 10.12% 1996 11 6.47% 2008 9 -17.98%
1973 4 -12.19% 1985 2 0.70% 1996 12 -1.97% 2008 10 -21.59%
1973 5 -12.21% 1985 3 0.88% 1997 1 4.39% 2008 11 -11.33%
1973 6 -4.43% 1985 4 0.53% 1997 2 -1.34% 2008 12 4.89%
1973 7 19.30% 1985 5 5.41% 1997 3 -3.44% 2009 1 -7.54%
1973 8 -2.17% 1985 6 2.99% 1997 4 4.46% 2009 2 -7.59%
1973 9 13.50% 1985 7 0.75% 1997 5 7.13% 2009 3 13.91%
1973 10 -4.04% 1985 8 0.49% 1997 6 4.14% 2009 4 13.67%
1973 11 -24.79% 1985 9 -4.69% 1997 7 8.39% 2009 5 6.23%
1973 12 2.33% 1985 10 6.48% 1997 8 -4.45% 2009 6 -1.38%
1974 1 5.29% 1985 11 8.45% 1997 9 5.89% 2009 7 8.76%
1974 2 -3.50% 1985 12 5.19% 1997 10 -3.41% 2009 8 2.17%
1974 3 -3.15% 1986 1 3.94% 1997 11 1.95% 2009 9 5.31%
1974 4 -5.53% 1986 2 10.34% 1997 12 1.14% 2009 10 -5.43%
1974 5 -10.19% 1986 3 6.73% 1998 1 1.08% 2009 11 5.45%
1974 6 -3.71% 1986 4 0.45% 1998 2 7.58% 2009 12 4.35%
1974 7 -0.77% 1986 5 3.29% 1998 3 5.03% 2010 1 -4.37%
1974 8 -7.99% 1986 6 2.38% 1998 4 1.16% 2010 2 3.01%
1974 9 -11.64% 1986 7 -6.67% 1998 5 -1.98% 2010 3 6.63%
1974 10 16.32% 1986 8 6.43% 1998 6 4.26% 2010 4 1.45%
1974 11 0.25% 1986 9 -8.50% 1998 7 -0.75% 2010 5 -8.10%
1974 12 -5.16% 1986 10 5.23% 1998 8 -15.49% 2010 6 -6.47%
1975 1 11.13% 1986 11 1.01% 1998 9 6.05% 2010 7 5.06%
1975 2 8.77% 1986 12 -1.48% 1998 10 7.70% 2010 8 -5.92%
1975 3 3.21% 1987 1 13.00% 1998 11 7.76% 2010 9 10.83%
1975 4 18.79% 1987 2 7.42% 1998 12 9.62% 2010 10 3.61%
1975 5 0.00% 1987 3 1.29% 1999 1 5.25% 2010 11 1.36%
1975 6 5.45% 1987 4 -1.62% 1999 2 -3.19% 2010 12 6.66%
1975 7 -6.86% 1987 5 0.10% 1999 3 5.40% 2011 1 1.62%
1975 8 -1.39% 1987 6 4.14% 1999 4 2.39% 2011 2 4.16%
1975 9 -2.94% 1987 7 4.89% 1999 5 -2.88% 2011 3 -0.40%
1975 10 1.01% 1987 8 4.02% 1999 6 6.52% 2011 4 2.51%
1975 11 1.12% 1987 9 -2.46% 1999 7 -3.37% 2011 5 -2.22%
1975 12 1.48% 1987 10 -25.81% 1999 8 -1.24% 2011 6 -3.61%
1976 1 15.09% 1987 11 -7.55% 1999 9 -1.48% 2011 7 -1.44%
1976 2 3.86% 1987 12 9.74% 1999 10 6.01% 2011 8 -7.71%
1976 3 2.49% 1988 1 3.97% 1999 11 2.05% 2011 9 -11.66%
1976 4 0.07% 1988 2 6.07% 1999 12 7.20% 2011 10 10.86%
1976 5 2.16% 1988 3 -0.27% 2000 1 -4.81% 2011 11 -2.26%
1976 6 7.57% 1988 4 1.79% 2000 2 1.00% 2011 12 -0.27%
1976 7 -3.20% 1988 5 -0.27% 2000 3 9.05% 2012 1 6.00%
1976 8 -3.26% 1988 6 6.84% 2000 4 -4.31% 2012 2 5.98%
1976 9 1.86% 1988 7 -0.65% 2000 5 -3.36% 2012 3 3.60%
1976 10 -2.40% 1988 8 -3.18% 2000 6 3.86% 2012 4 -1.21%
1976 11 3.34% 1988 9 4.20% 2000 7 -1.24% 2012 5 -7.17%
1976 12 6.27% 1988 10 2.09% 2000 8 6.39% 2012 6 3.37%
1977 1 1.52% 1988 11 -1.35% 2000 9 -5.38% 2012 7 1.17%
1977 2 -0.04% 1988 12 1.97% 2000 10 -1.79% 2012 8 3.34%
1977 3 -1.45% 1989 1 8.11% 2000 11 -8.51% 2012 9 3.21%
1977 4 3.42% 1989 2 -1.63% 2000 12 0.84% 2012 10 -2.58%
1977 5 0.35% 1989 3 2.98% 2001 1 3.25% 2012 11 0.96%
1977 6 7.52% 1989 4 5.03% 2001 2 -9.37% 2012 12 0.77%
1977 7 -2.48% 1989 5 5.28% 2001 3 -6.40% 2013 1 5.08%
1977 8 -3.30% 1989 6 -0.87% 2001 4 8.76% 2013 2 0.69%
1977 9 -0.26% 1989 7 8.40% 2001 5 1.05% 2013 3 3.15%
1977 10 -3.11% 1989 8 2.62% 2001 6 -2.47% 2013 4 0.99%
1977 11 8.21% 1989 9 1.73% 2001 7 -1.53% 2013 5 3.58%
1977 12 4.00% 1989 10 -3.14% 2001 8 -6.48% 2013 6 -1.68%
1978 1 -6.62% 1989 11 1.65% 2001 9 -8.08% 2013 7 6.62%
1978 2 4.21% 1989 12 0.63% 2001 10 2.37% 2013 8 -1.86%
1978 3 9.17% 1990 1 -6.45% 2001 11 7.48% 2013 9 4.21%
1978 4 12.28% 1990 2 2.05% 2001 12 1.04% 2013 10 4.26%
1978 5 6.39% 1990 3 2.56% 2002 1 -3.15% 2013 11 3.49%
1978 6 -2.38% 1990 4 -2.53% 2002 2 -1.72% 2013 12 2.45%
1978 7 12.50% 1990 5 8.89% 2002 3 3.38% 2014 1 -1.88%
1978 8 8.89% 1990 6 0.44% 2002 4 -6.36% 2014 2 5.20%
1978 9 -3.30% 1990 7 -1.13% 2002 5 -0.21% 2014 3 -1.14%
1978 10 -20.84% 1990 8 -9.80% 2002 6 -7.67% 2014 4 -1.15%
1978 11 10.00% 1990 9 -6.35% 2002 7 -7.19% 2014 5 3.09%
1978 12 3.06% 1990 10 -1.24% 2002 8 0.98% 2014 6 2.62%
1979 1 10.38% 1990 11 7.57% 2002 9 -10.76% 2014 7 -1.49%
1979 2 -4.41% 1990 12 3.10% 2002 10 9.44% 2014 8 4.84%
1979 3 12.71% 1991 1 6.99% 2002 11 5.01% 2014 9 -1.56%
1979 4 2.01% 1991 2 8.68% 2002 12 -6.45% 2014 10 2.91%
1979 5 -2.58% 1991 3 3.40% 2003 1 -2.76% 2014 11 2.28%
1979 6 7.38% 1991 4 0.37% 2003 2 -1.21% 2014 12 -0.10%
1979 7 2.59% 1991 5 5.70% 2003 3 1.11% 2015 1 -2.46%
1979 8 11.75% 1991 6 -5.88% 2003 4 8.21% 2015 2 6.42%
1979 9 -0.68% 1991 7 6.21% 2003 5 4.42% 2015 3 -0.92%
1979 10 -9.60% 1991 8 3.07% 2003 6 1.11% 2015 4 0.18%

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