Your manager is trying to determine what forecasting method to use. Based on the following historical data, calculate the following forecast and specify what procedure you would utilize.

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MONTHACTUAL DEMAND $162265367468571673776878978108011841285$

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a$.$ Calculate the simple three$-$month moving average forecast for periods $412.($Round your answers to $3$ decimal places.$)$

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b$.$ Calculate the weighted three$-$month moving average for the periods $4-12$using weights of $0\mathrm{.}50($for the period t$1)$; $0\mathrm{.}30($for the period t$2)$ and $0\mathrm{.}20($for the period t$3).($Round your answers to $1$ decimal place.$)$

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c$.$ Calculate the single exponential smoothing forecast for periods $212$ using an initial forecast $($F$1)$ of $61$ and an of $0\mathrm{.}30.($Round your answers to $3$ decimal places.$)$

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d$.$ Calculate the exponential smoothing with trend component forecast for periods $212$ using an initial trend forecast $($T$1)$ of $1\mathrm{.}8,$ an initial exponential smoothing forecast $($F$1)$ of $60,$ an of $0\mathrm{.}30,$ and a of $0\mathrm{.}30.($Round your answers to $3$ decimal places.$)$

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e$-1.$ Calculate the mean absolute deviation $($MAD$)$ for the forecasts made by each technique in periods $412.($Round your answers to $3$ decimal places.$)$

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e$-2.$ Which forecasting method is best?

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multiple choice

Single exponential smoothing forecast

Three$-$month moving average

Exponential smoothing with trend forecast

Three$-$month weighted moving average