Question: Your manager is trying to determine what forecasting method to use. Based on the following historical data, calculate the following forecast and specify what procedure
Your manager is trying to determine what forecasting method to use. Based on the following historical data, calculate the following forecast and specify what procedure you would utilize.
| MONTH | ACTUAL DEMAND | ||
| 1 | 62 | ||
| 2 | 65 | ||
| 3 | 67 | ||
| 4 | 68 | ||
| 5 | 71 | ||
| 6 | 73 | ||
| 7 | 76 | ||
| 8 | 78 | ||
| 9 | 78 | ||
| 10 | 80 | ||
| 11 | 84 | ||
| 12 | 85 | ||
a. Calculate the simple three-month moving average forecast for periods 412. (Round your answers to 3 decimal places.)
Month Three-Month Moving Average
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
b. Calculate the weighted three-month moving average for the periods 4-12 using weights of 0.50 (for the period t1); 0.30 (for the period t2) and 0.20 (for the period t3). (Round your answers to 1 decimal place.)
Month. Three-Month Moving Average
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
c. Calculate the single exponential smoothing forecast for periods 212 using an initial forecast (F1) of 61 and an of 0.30. (Round your answers to 3 decimal places.)
Month Single Exponential Smoothing Forecast
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
d. Calculate the exponential smoothing with trend component forecast for periods 212 using an initial trend forecast (T1) of 1.8, an initial exponential smoothing forecast (F1) of 60, an of 0.30, and a of 0.30. (Round your answers to 3 decimal places.)
Month. Exponential Smoothing with Trend
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
e-1. Calculate the mean absolute deviation (MAD) for the forecasts made by each technique in periods 412. (Round your answers to 3 decimal places.)
Three-month moving average -
Three-month weighted moving average -
Single exponential smoothing forecast -
Exponential smoothing with trend -
e-2. Which forecasting method is best?
Three-month weighted moving average
-
Three-month moving average
-
Exponential smoothing with trend forecast
-
Single exponential smoothing forecast
JUST GIVE ME THE ANSWERS DON'T DO THE EXCEL SHEET!!!!
Step by Step Solution
There are 3 Steps involved in it
Get step-by-step solutions from verified subject matter experts
