Your manager is trying to determine what forecasting method to use. Based on the following historical data, calculate the following forecasts and specify what procedure you would utilize.

MONTH	ACTUAL DEMAND
1	63
2	66
3	68
4	69
5	71
6	74
7	77
8	78
9	78
10	81
11	83
12	84

a. Calculate the simple three-month moving average forecast for periods 412. (Round your answers to 3 decimal places.)

Month	Three-Month Moving Average
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12

b. Calculate the weighted three-month moving average for periods 412 using weights of 0.40 (for the period t1); 0.30 (for the period t2), and 0.30 (for the period t3). (Do not round intermediate calculations. Round your answers to 1 decimal place.)

Month	Three-Month Weighted Moving Average
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12

c. Calculate the single exponential smoothing forecast for periods 212 using an initial forecast (F₁) of 62 and an of 0.20. (Do not round intermediate calculations. Round your answers to 3 decimal places.)

Month	Single Exponential Smoothing Forcast
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12

d. Calculate the exponential smoothing with trend component forecast for periods 212 using an initial trend forecast (T₁) of 1.70, an initial exponential smoothing forecast (F₁) of 61, an of 0.20, and a of 0.40. (Do not round intermediate calculations. Round your answers to 3 decimal places.)

Month	Exponential Smoothing with Trend
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12

e-1. Calculate the mean absolute deviation (MAD) for the forecasts made by each technique in periods 412. (Do not round intermediate calculations. Round your answers to 3 decimal places.)

	Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD)
Three-Month moving Average
three Month weighted moving average
single exponential smoothing forecast
exponential smoothing with trend

e-2. Which forecasting method do you prefer?

• Single exponential smoothing forecast

• Three-month moving average

• Three-month weighted moving average

• Exponential smoothing with trend forecast